Valero Texas Open Picks to Win & Odds 2025: Berger Time at TPC San Antonio
There's one week to go until the first major of the 2025 PGA Tour season, and a very strong field is in attendance at TPC San Antonio for one final tuneup, with Ludvig Aberg the outright betting favorite by the Valero Texas Open odds. His odds to win of +1200 represent an implied win probability of 7.69% and return a profit of $120 on a winning $10 bet.
Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners (a two-time winner of this event), Hideki Matsuyama, and Patrick Cantlay round out the top of this week's golf oddsboard for the Valero Texas Open. Defending tournament champion Akshay Bhatia is also back to defend his title in the 153-man field.
The tournament begins Thursday and runs through Sunday's final round, and we're making our top picks to win the Valero Texas Open. You'll need to watch the Masters odds throughout the tournament to catch any lingering value bets for the first major.
📊 PGA Tour odds this week: 2025 Valero Texas Open
Our live Valero Texas Open odds from our best golf betting sites update in real time.
💰 Valero Texas Open picks
🇺🇸 Daniel Berger to win
Best odds: +3500 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 2.78%
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Berger is making just his second professional appearance at TPC San Antonio after missing the cut in 2019. He enters this return to the Valero Texas Open in excellent form after finishing T-25 or better in five straight events.
Across his last 12 rounds - a three-tournament stretch that includes The Players Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Cognizant Classic - Berger is averaging 0.47 strokes gained: around-the-green and 0.72 SG: putting per round. He also ranks 17th on the PGA Tour this season in average proximity to the pin on approaches from 150-175 yards.
The 31-year-old is already in next week's Masters field, his first appearance in the year's first major since 2022. He's looking for his first victory since 2021.
🇺🇸 Andrew Novak to finish top 10
Best odds: +650 via Caesars | Implied win probability: 13.33%
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Novak enters this week ranked 80th in the world and needs a win at TPC San Antonio to qualify for the Masters. He returns to the Valero Texas Open for the fourth straight year, with that run consisting of a missed cut, a ninth-place finish, and last year's T-58 showing.
While he missed the cut in three of his last five events, he finished third in the Farmers Insurance Open in January and tied for 13th at Torrey Pines a few weeks later in The Genesis Invitational Signature Event.
Novak ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in proximity from 150-175 yards, and his short game has been a strength across his last 12 measured rounds.
🤖 AI Valero Texas Open prediction
Our AI Valero Texas Open prediction is via ChatGPT, an AI chatbot that uses natural language processing to understand and respond to user prompts. This pick is for entertainment purposes only, and we don't advise wagering large amounts on the below advice.
🇨🇦 Corey Conners
Best odds: +1800 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 5.26%
Considering the current field for the 2025 Valero Texas Open, Corey Conners stands out as a strong contender. Conners has established a notable history at TPC San Antonio, including victories in 2019 and 2023. His consistent performance on this course makes him a compelling choice for this year's tournament.
Here are three key reasons why Corey Conners is a strong pick to win the 2025 Valero Texas Open:
- Elite course history – Conners won this event in 2019 and 2023 and has posted multiple strong finishes at TPC San Antonio, proving he thrives on this course
- Ball-striking excellence – He consistently ranks among the best in strokes gained: approach and tee to green, two of the most crucial stats for success at this venue
- Recent form and momentum – Conners has been playing solid golf during the 2025 PGA Tour season, including four top-10 finishes, signaling he's in strong competitive shape
🏌️ Who's favored to win the Valero Texas Open?
🇸🇪 Ludvig Aberg
Best odds: +1200 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 7.69%
Aberg enters this week at No. 5 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and is the top-ranked golfer in the field by that measure. He's played six events in 2025 and claimed his first win of the season in The Genesis Invitational Signature Event at Torrey Pines.
He missed the cut in The Players Championship his last time out and subsequently took two weeks off. The now-25-year-old finished solo second in his debut at the Masters last year, and he's likely to be focused on what he needs to sort out to get his game ready for Augusta National Golf Course.
I'll pass on Aberg at these +1200 odds in the outright betting market. I'll look to the nationality or placing markets to get a piece of the top golfer in the field.
Ludvig Aberg's Valero Texas Open odds:
⛳ 2025 Valero Texas Open tournament info
- Where: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
- When: Thursday, April 3 - Sunday, April 6
- Field: 153
- Favorite: Ludvig Aberg (+1200 via DraftKings)
- Purse: $9.5 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
💰 Valero Texas Open betting history
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Akshay Bhatia | -20 (playoff) | +5000 |
| 2023 | Corey Conners | -15 | +2500 |
| 2022 | J.J. Spaun | -13 | +15000 |
| 2021 | Jordan Spieth | -18 | +1200 |
| 2020 | Canceled | ||
| 2019 | Corey Conners | -20 | Field (+900) |
| 2018 | Andrew Landry | -17 | Field (+550) |
| 2017 | Kevin Chappell | -12 | +2500 |
| 2016 | Charley Hoffman | -12 | +2500 |
| 2015 | Jimmy Walker | -11 | +2000 |
Historical odds via GolfOdds.com.
❓ How to bet on golf
When it comes to golf betting, it's essential to understand the various types of wagers available and how to assess player performance effectively.
- Outright winners
- Each-way bets (which encompass both a win and a top finish)
- Head-to-head matchups
- Proposition bets tailored to specific tournament events, like hole-in-one occurrences or player performances on designated holes
Once you've determined your preferred bet types, conduct thorough research on players, course conditions, recent form, and other pertinent factors that could influence outcomes.
Delve into player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may impact a player's chances of success.
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