MLB MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year Predictions 2025: Should we Fade Ohtani as Massive Favorite?
Opening Day is here, which means our daily MLB picks are as well.
However, before we get into the grind of betting on a 162-game season all summer long, let's first lock in some bets we'll never have to think about again after today.
Our MLB awards predictions offer picks for each of the three most popular awards markets, with a look at the game's unicorn and two of its rising stars. If you want even more MLB futures, be sure to follow me on X throughout the season.
🧑🏫 MLB MVP prediction
Here are our best MLB MVP predictions for the 2025 baseball season.
🔢 Odds to win National League MVP 2025
Live 2025 MLB MVP odds from our best MLB betting sites.
👑 Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP (+170 via DraftKings)
I know it sounds absurd to bet on someone to win MVP ahead of Opening Day at +170 odds, but let's really break down this bet.
The implied probability associated with +170 odds is just 37%. Without diving into any stats, wouldn't you say Ohtani has better than a 37% chance of winning NL MVP this year? Like, a much better chance? What, you want more than that? OK, fine.
How about this: Based on Steamer's season-long projections, Juan Soto is expected to be the second-most valuable player in the NL by fWAR at 6.0. Ohtani's Dodgers teammate, Mookie Betts, comes in at third with 5.8 projected fWAR.
Ohtani the hitter is third on the leaderboard at 5.4 fWAR. However, that doesn't show his projected fWAR as a pitcher. Steamer projects Ohtani the pitcher to log roughly 120 innings and accrue 2.5 fWAR.
Therefore, Ohtani is projected to accrue an absurd 8.3 fWAR to Soto's 6.0. That means the gap between first and second is the same as the gap between second and 18th (Manny Machado and Willy Adames are tied at 3.7).
When he's hitting and pitching, Ohtani is just so much better than the rest of the league that this market probably shouldn't exist while he's healthy. He won this award last year on hitting alone, and he already has a home run to his name following the Tokyo Series.
Fading Ohtani just means you're betting on him suffering a long-term injury. I'll certainly target some players at longer odds, too, but it's irresponsible to not bet on baseball's unicorn before the season begins in earnest.
🧑🏫 MLB Cy Young prediction
Here are our best MLB Cy Young predictions.
🔢 Odds to win American League Cy Young 2025
Live 2025 MLB Cy Young odds from our best sports betting sites.
👑 Garrett Crochet to win AL Cy Young (+450 via DraftKings)
Crochet was the second-best starter in the American League last year, and the only thing that held him back from truly pushing Tarik Skubal for the Cy Young Award was the fact that the Chicago White Sox limited his innings ahead of an inevitable trade.
That trade happened, and Crochet now pitches for the Boston Red Sox, who enter this campaign with plenty of hype.
Crochet ranked just behind Skubal in a number of pitching categories, but he easily paced AL starters in strikeouts per nine innings (12.88 to Cole Ragans' second-best mark of 10.77).
Looking ahead to this season, Crochet is projected by Steamer to accrue the third-most fWAR among AL starters, though he's extremely close at 4.8 to Skubal's 5.0 and Jacob deGrom's 5.1. Sorry to those backing deGrom, but I just can't do it. The +1400 odds are enticing, but we're talking about a pitcher who hasn't eclipsed 92 innings in a season since 2019.
Therefore, I'm looking at either Skubal or Crochet, as the gap between them and Ragans and Pablo Lopez (projected for the fourth-most fWAR at 3.6) is simply too great for the latter to interest me at this time. If I'm fading one of the top two, I'll go further down the oddsboard.
I side with Crochet over Skubal for two reasons: First, we're getting a better price at +450 to Skubal's best of +380, and I don't think their odds need to be different at all. And secondly, I think voter fatigue could become a factor if these two finish with similar statistics at the end of the season, leading to Skubal coming up just short.
🧑🏫 MLB Rookie of the Year prediction
Here are our best MLB Rookie of the Year predictions.
🔢 Odds to win American League Rookie of the Year 2025
Live MLB Rookie of the Year odds via our best sports betting apps.
👑 Kristian Campbell to win AL Rookie of the Year (+800 via Caesars)
Red Sox infielder Kristian Campbell was one of my favorite AL Rookie of the Year bets before Boston acquired Alex Bregman to play second base. It appeared Campbell would begin his season in the minors.
Fast forward to this past week, and Campbell is now set to serve as Boston's Opening Day second baseman, with Bregman moving to third, Rafael Devers becoming the DH, and Masataka Yoshida starting his year in the minors as he attempts to become more comfortable with outfield work.
That tells me the Red Sox like what they see in Campbell, and they know both the offense and defense will be significantly better with him at the keystone and Yoshida platooning in the outfield. I say that because the worry with a bet like this is, of course, that manager Alex Cora will decide to move Yoshida back to DH in a couple of weeks, which would send Devers to third and Bregman to second, killing Campbell's role with the major-league team.
However, this is a team ready to win now, and Campbell helps it do just that. He's projected to accrue 2.5 fWAR by Steamer across 110 games this year, and he went 20-20 in 115 minor-league contests last season. That combination of power, speed, defense, and contact skills (he has a projected batting average of .267) is exactly why he's my favorite AL Rookie of the Year bet.
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MLB picks for Opening Day
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❓ MLB awards FAQs
Who are the MLB MVP favorites?
Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani is the favorite in the National League while Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees is the front-runner in the American League.
Who won the MLB MVP Awards last year?
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani won his third MVP award and first in the National League.
In the American League, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge won for the second time.
Who are the Cy Young favorites?
Tarik Skubal is the favorite in the AL, and Paul Skenes is the front-runner in the NL.
Who won the Cy Young Awards last year?
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers won the American League Cy Young Award in 2024.
Atlanta Braves southpaw Chris Sale took home the award for the National League.
Who are the Rookie of the Year favorites?
Jasson Dominguez of the New York Yankees and Roki Sasaki of the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards, respectively.
Who won the Rookie of the Year Awards last year?
New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil and Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes won the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards, respectively, in 2024.
When will the MLB awards winners be announced?
We expect the 2025 awards to be announced sometime in mid-November.
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