Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for May 16

We've put together four juicy home run picks for Friday's action, featuring some of baseball's biggest stars, including Kerry Carpenter.

Sean Tomlinson

Last updated: May 16, 2025 12:09 PM EDT • 3 min read

Best Home Run Predictions Tonight — Pictured: Detroit Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter celebrates with teammates after hitting a three-run home run against the Los Angeles Angels. Photo by Jonathan Hui / Imagn.

The World Series odds-contending Detroit Tigers are suddenly tied for the best record in baseball, and Kerry Carpenter is a significant reason behind that surge as he leads our best home run predictions tonight.

Be sure to read on for our best prediction and home run parlay, which pays out over $3,000 in profit if it hits!

💰 MLB best home run predictions & odds tonight: May 16

Here are my best home run predictions and odds tonight, with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

🧨 Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+300 via FanDuel) vs. Blue Jays ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Ketel Marte to hit a home run (+320 via FanDuel) vs. Rockies ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+330 via FanDuel) vs. Mariners ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Daulton Varsho to hit a home run (+450 via bet365) vs. Tigers ⭐⭐⭐

🚀 Best home run parlay picks

Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Friday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

💣 Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+300)
💣 Ketel Marte to hit a home run (+320)
💣 Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+330)
💣 Daulton Varsho to hit a home run (+420)

Parlay odds: +30831 via FanDuel ($10 to win $3,083.15)

💣 Best home run prediction tonight: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop prediction tonight. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.

⚾ Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +300 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $30)

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Carpenter has been ascending fast this season, and especially so in May. He's slashing a white hot .354/.392/.583 at the midway point of the month, leading to an OPS during May of .955 that's notably higher than his still rather good .812 throughout March and April.

He's pulverizing seemingly everything, and there's room for ever more positive regression with an expected slugging of .586 that sits in the top 5% leaguewide, and it's a fair bit ahead of Carpenter's actual mark of .534.

The left-handed slugger is particularly lethal against righties while posting a .918 OPS, and hitting seven of his nine home runs against them. And tonight he gets to face a righty in the Blue Jays' Bowden Francis who has gone careening off the tallest cliff after his wheels fell off in fiery fashion.

Francis was an encouraging story for the Blue Jays last year while posting a 3.30 ERA during his first season spent mostly as a big-league starter. But his strikeouts were lacking then, and that problem has become even more severe now, resulting in a lowly 6.5 K/9.

The outcome of more balls in play from a pitcher who leans heavily on a mediocre fastball has been grisly. Bowden has given up the third-most home runs leaguewide (12), and there's always a high potential for more missiles that sail far with his 50.4% average exit velocity allowed. That's in the bottom 5% of MLB, and it's significantly worse than his 36.2% last year.

📊 Tigers vs. Blue Jays odds

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Written By:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.