Opening Day Home Run Prop Bets & Odds Today: Thursday, March 27
The sun is shining, birds are chirping, and the footlong hot dogs are sizzling on the grill. Oh yes, Opening Day is here, along with the debut edition for this season of our best home run prop bets today.
We'll scour our best MLB betting sites in the noble pursuit of dingers, laying out the top home run bets to make. Of course, the home run market is inherently volatile, so a recreational wager is always recommended.
We're eyeing a handful of sluggers for Opening Day who face ideal matchups, including Manny Machado and Kyle Schwarber.
💰 Best MLB home run prop bets & odds tonight: Opening Day
Here are my best MLB home run prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Tyler O'Neill player prop pick: To hit a home run (+375 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Manny Machado player prop pick: To hit a home run (+550 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
🧨 Kyle Schwarber player prop pick: To hit a home run (+425 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Byron Buxton player prop pick: To hit a home run (+430 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
💣 Best MLB home run prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Tyler O'Neill (Orioles) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +375 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win 37.50)
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Jose Berrios produced a quality season overall last year while sitting a respectable 15th in the AL in ERA (3.60). But his ERA could have been even better if he was merely serviceable instead of disastrous in an area that matters a whole lot for us here.
The righty allowed 31 home runs, which was tied for the second-worst in MLB. That was a career worst too, but not by much, as Berrios allowed 25 homers in 2023 and 29 in 2022.
He manages the damage well, but Berrios regularly gives up balls that sail to Neptune. Which suits O'Neill, as the new Oriole specializes in slugging small spheres to other planets. That's especially true when it comes to pitchers like Berrios who utilize a sinker heavily. O'Neil slugged .522 against that pitch last year with a .290 batting average, according to Baseball Savant.
O'Neill is getting the most tickets to hit a home run today at BetMGM, no doubt as a result of his highly appealing matchup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+500), another power hitter in this game, is second. Shohei Ohtani (+450), Juan Soto (+550), and Cody Bellinger (+725) round out the top five.
📊 Orioles vs. Blue Jays home run odds
⚾ Manny Machado (Padres) to hit a home run ⭐⭐
Best odds: +550 via Caesars (bet $10 to win $55)
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Yes, facing the defending NL Cy Young odds winner is always a terrifying thought, especially after Chris Sale surrendered a measly nine home runs last year during his award-winning season.
But that may be a significant aberration when we look back on Sale's career, as he's often surrendered a fair number of long balls even while dominating. The lefty has given up 23-plus dingers in five seasons.
He also leans heavily on his four-seamer while throwing it 38% of the time last year, a pitch that Machado recorded a 61.6% hard-hit rate against in 2024.
📊 Padres vs. Braves home run odds
⚾ Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) to hit a home run⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +425 via Caesars (bet $10 to win $42.50)
This is an instance when shopping around at our best sports betting sites is key, as FanDuel's odds are considerably lower at +360.
Schwarber remains the classic three-true outcome slugger, and his hard-hit rate of 55.5% ranked among the top 3% of MLB last year, as did his average exit velocity. And similar to Machado, Schwarber feasts on heat, with a .575 expected slugging last year against fastballs, a pitch that was sent away for 20 of his 38 home runs.
Now he'll face MacKenzie Gore, who finished last campaign with a .424 expected slugging on his four-seamer, the worst of the four pitches he relies on primarily.
📊 Phillies vs. Nationals home run odds
⚾ Byron Buxton (Twins) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +430 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $43)
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We're hunting flames here yet again, though Buxton can wallop either of the pitches Sonny Gray throws most often.
That's particularly true for the fastball, a pitch Buxton teed off on for a sky-high .664 slugging last year. But it's also the case with the sweeper, Gray's secondary pitch he uses to keep hitters off balance. Buxton's expected slugging against that pitch was .591 last season.
📊 Twins vs. Cardinals home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks for Opening Day
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for the baseball action on Opening Day; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay:
💣 Tyler O'Neil to hit a home run (+350)
💣 Manny Machado to hit a home run (+550)
💣 Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+425)
💣 Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+400)
🚀 Best parlay odds: +76681 via Caesars ($10 to win $7668.10)
🧠 MLB expert picks for Opening Day
- MLB odds and schedule today
- Dodgers moneyline odds
- Yankees moneyline odds
- MLB preseason home run parlay
- MLB award predictions
- MLB preseason AI predictions
- World Series AI predictions
Best MLB betting sites
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