Best Home Run Prop Bets, MLB Player Prop Odds Tonight: March 29
It's been an exciting first couple of days of MLB action, with some of the game's biggest stars blasting balls over various stadium walls.
Our best home run prop bets today feature MLB MVP odds contender Juan Soto, who drilled his first home run as a member of the New York Mets yesterday. Can he make it two games in a row when his team squares off against the Houston Astros again tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)?
Meanwhile, in the evening's other game on FOX, the Atlanta Braves are desperate for a win after dropping the first two games at Petco Park against the San Diego Padres. We're backing not one but two Braves sluggers to go yard in tonight's game. Along with Soto, those three will form our home run parlay for today.
💰 Best MLB home run prop bets & odds tonight: March 29
Here are my best MLB home run prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Joc Pederson player prop pick: To hit a home run (+475 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Juan Soto player prop pick: To hit a home run (+370 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Marcell Ozuna player prop pick: To hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Austin Riley player prop pick: To hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💣 Best MLB home run prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Joc Pederson (Rangers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +475 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $47.5)
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Of these four players featured in our MLB home run props today, Pederson's projection is the lowest, but it's still a very strong 0.34.
Pederson hasn't hit a home run to start the year, but he and the Rangers square off against Walker Buehler on Saturday. Buehler allowed homers for fun last year for the Dodgers, giving up nearly two per nine innings. It remains to be seen whether this change of scenery to the Red Sox can lead to better results.
The implied probability associated with these +475 odds is just 17.39%. Now, Pederson's projection doesn't directly translate to how likely he is to hit a home run based on a percentage, but the fact that he owns the fourth-highest projection of all players today can't be ignored.
Comparatively, Shohei Ohtani's projection is just below Pederson's at 0.33, but his home run odds are hovering around +220.
📊 Red Sox vs. Rangers home run odds
⚾ Juan Soto (Mets) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +370 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $37)
Soto's first long ball with the Mets came in just his second game of the season, providing bettors with confidence that he could manage a second straight 40-homer campaign.
The Mets outfielder owns the joint-highest home run projection today with former New York Yankees teammate Aaron Judge. However, Judge's home run prop is trading at odds shorter than +200, and we're getting a price of +370 here through DraftKings.
The implied probability associated with these odds is just 21.28%, and Soto's projection is 0.41. That's why we're getting better than 50% +EV on this bet.
📊 Mets vs. Astros home run odds
⚾ Marcell Ozuna (Braves) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +420 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $42)
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Ozuna launched 39 home runs last year after hitting 40 the year prior, but some season-long projection models expect him to experience a decline this year.
I'm not sure I can see the rationale behind that, as Ozuna's batted-ball data was even better last season than it was in 2023. His average exit velocity was higher, his hard hit percentage was greater, and he still ranked in the 96th percentile in barrel rate. I'm expecting Ozuna to hit his first home run of this young campaign tonight against the Padres.
San Diego hasn't gotten much length out of Michael King and Dylan Cease across the first two games despite winning both, which means right-hander Randy Vasquez could have a longer leash in today's game. That's good news for Braves hitters, because Vasquez isn't very good. Unlike King and Cease, he doesn't miss many bets, and he gave up a ton of homers in Triple-A last year.
Ozuna's home run projection is 0.38 today, and based on that, we're getting nearly 65% +EV through these +420 odds.
📊 Braves vs. Padres home run odds
⚾ Austin Riley (Braves) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +420 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $42)
I'm backing Riley to hit a home run for the same reasons I like Ozuna to launch one. The difference is that the Braves third baseman already has one to his credit this season.
Riley struggled in 2024, hitting only 19 home runs after belting 37 the year prior. However, his batted-ball data was nearly identical - and in some spots, better. The slugger should benefit from some positive regression this season en route to a 30-plus homer. We don't need both Riley and Ozuna to hit a home run, as even one win will result in a $32 profit between the two.
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Saturday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay:
💣 Juan Soto to hit a home run (+350)
💣 Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run (+420)
💣 Austin Riley to hit a home run (+420)
🚀 Best parlay odds: +10215 via FanDuel ($10 to win $1,021.58)
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