Mets vs. Yankees Prediction & Player Props: Expert Picks for May 16

The 2025 Subway Series starts tonight with the New York Mets taking on the New York Yankees at 7:05 p.m. ET (YES Network) from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y. Our Mets vs. Yankees prediction and player props - part of our MLB picks - highlight our best bets ahead of the meeting between first-place foes.

Read on for our favorite plus-money bonus bet on Aaron Judge at the end of the article.

💰 Best Mets vs. Yankees predictions & player props

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✅ Under 9 runs (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐✅ Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 strikeouts (-116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔥 Under 9 runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Mets and Yankees tend to light up scoreboards when they get together. They put up a whopping 49 runs across four games last season and have combined for 455 runs already in 2025. However, they've managed to go Under 9 runs in five of their last 10 Subway Series showdowns, so we expect a lower-scoring affair tonight.

The New York rivals have a combined Over-Under record of 36-46-5, leaning Under at a 56.1% clip. The bats for both teams have gone cold in recent games, with the Mets scoring six runs in their last three and the Yankees scoring four in their last two.

The standard juice offered by our best sports betting sites on the Under carries an implied probability of 52.38%.

✅ Best bet: -110 via Caesars (bet $10 to win $9.09 profit)

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⚾️ Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rodon struggled in his most recent outing against the Athletics, surrendering four earned runs via two home runs at Sutter Health Park. Nevertheless, he's been a strikeout machine as of late, racking up 39 over his past five starts. He's cleared this line comfortably in seven of nine outings in 2025.

While the Mets have the fourth-lowest team strikeout rate in the league (7.52 per game), they've been sat down at a higher rate by starters recently. As such, we'll take a flyer on Rodon to put on a show in this rivalry tilt, with his odds returning $8.62 in profits from a $10 winning wager.

✅ Best odds: -116 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $8.62 profit)

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👀 Bonus bet: Aaron Judge Under 0.5 hits ⭐⭐

Judge is currently riding a six-game hitting streak, which provides those who - perhaps foolishly - choose to fade him with some added value. The heavy MLB MVP odds favorite is 0-for-3 in his career against New York starter Tylor Megill, and he's gone hitless in his last two against the Mets.

We've already broken down why we believe runs will be hard to come by tonight. As such, this play is too good to pass up, given the generous odds offered by our best sports betting apps.

✅ Best odds: +200 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $20 profit)

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💵 Best MLB betting sites

Want to bet on baseball? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for today's games:

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