North Carolina vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Baseball Preview & Best Bets

Who will win this top-five clash and take control of the ACC standings?

Gabe Henderson

Last updated: May 15, 2025 1:26 PM EDT • 3 min read

North Carolina vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Baseball Preview & Best Bets — Pictured: Florida State Seminoles starting pitcher Jamie Arnold (16) throws against the Tennessee Volunteers. Photo by Steven Branscombe via Imagn Images.

Two of the NCAA's best teams go head-to-head tonight when the No. 4 North Carolina Tar Heels take on the No. 2 Florida State Seminoles. Our North Carolina vs. Florida State prediction focuses on which team gets the upper hand ahead of first pitch at 7 p.m. ET (ACC Network) from Dick Howser Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla.

⚾️ Best North Carolina vs. Florida State predictions

✅ Florida State ML (-154 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Under 9 runs (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 North Carolina vs. Florida State betting odds

Odds via DraftKings as of Friday morning.

Run line: North Carolina +1.5 (-154) | Florida State -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline: North Carolina +120 | Florida State -154
Total: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-115)

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🔥 Florida State moneyline ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida State and North Carolina both face the toughest tests of the season this weekend. The Seminoles and Tar Heels will be fighting not only to keep their rankings, but also to secure national top-eight seeds and the best possible seeds in the ACC tournament.

Each of the top five teams turns the ball over to aces, with RHP Jake Knapp (10-0, 2.03 ERA) for the Tar Heels and LHP Jamie Arnold (6-1, 2.21 ERA) for the Seminoles. So who holds the advantage?

North Carolina's pitching staff is one of the best in the country, and the Tar Heels are better equipped to utilize their arms to win throughout the weekend. However, this is the one night when they don't hold a distinct advantage, even with Knapp putting up elite numbers for a starter.

Arnold has shown year after year that he's one of the nation's top starters. He's allowed just five runs over his last five starts (31 2/3 innings), tallying 44 strikeouts and 10 walks during that period. If Arnold can limit the power bats of Luke Stevenson and Hunter Stokely, he sets his team up nicely to get the win.

Florida State has won 11 of its 12 series openers this season, dropping the only Game 1 on the road at Notre Dame.

The Seminoles have been successfully defending their home turf this campaign while posting a 23-5 record. Compare that to North Carolina's mediocre 10-5 mark away from Boshamer Stadium, and it's easy to see the hosts' path to victory with their ace on the bump. We'll take the Florida State moneyline in a low-scoring affair.

Our best sports betting sites list the Seminoles as -154 favorites, which implies a 60.63% probability of victory.

✅ Best odds: -154 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $6.49 profit)

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson

Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.