Canada Election Odds: Carney's Liberals Build as Favorites Ahead of April 28 Election
The next Canadian federal election date has officially been set, and we take a look at the Canadian federal election odds, which show the Liberal Party as a -174 betting favorite ahead of the April 28 election.
Several of the best sportsbooks in Canada offer odds on the 45th federal election, including the winning party and which party will form the official opposition.
Canada's next federal election will be held on April 28 after Prime Minister Mark Carney formally called it. Election campaigns will last 36 days, the shortest allowed under Canadian law, ending on Sunday, April 27. The election will fall on the following Monday.
📊 45th Canadian federal election betting odds
This market is set for the "Sworn in Government." Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 1, 2025.
| Party | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party (LPC) | -174 | 63.5% | $5.75 |
| Conservatives (CPC) | +126 | 44.25% | $12.60 |
| Any other party | +7500 | 1.32% | $750 |
Latest Canadian federal election odds & news
- March 22: The Liberals became -150 betting favorites with the Conservatives going to +110 with reports of an election being called for April 28
- March 20: With the writ likely to drop by the end of the week, the Liberals have moved into favorite status (-125); Cons slip (-110); NDP, Bloc, Green, lose ground
- March 15: Conservatives continue to tumble, moving from -225 to -175; Liberals go from +162 to +125; NDP + Bloc lose ground
- March 14: Carney sworn in as Prime Minister, announces new cabinet
- March 10: Conservatives slip to -225, Liberals shorten to +162; NDP lose steam and move from +6000 to +11000
- March 9: Liberals elect Mark Carney as the new leader, replacing Justin Trudeau
- March 4: Conservatives move to -250; Liberals to +175; other parties remain unchanged
- Feb. 27: Ontario, Canada's most populous province, votes the PC party back into power, giving it a third mandate
- Feb. 27: Conservatives move from -450 to -300, Liberals from +275 to +225; other parties remain stagnant
- Feb. 18: Conservatives move from -600 to -450, Liberals from +350 to +275, on heels of Mark Carney's surge toward being the next Liberal leader
- Jan. 10: The Liberals announce they will name their new leader on March 9; The House of Commons is prorogued until March 24 to allow for the transition
- Jan. 6: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces he'll resign as the leader of the Liberal Party when a replacement has been chosen
- Dec. 20: New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh announces he would bring forth a non-confidence motion for the Liberals, a shift from previous instances in which the NDP backed the Liberals
- Dec. 8: The Liberals survive a third non-confidence vote as the Conservatives attempt to topple the government again but do not receive NDP support
🇨🇦 Which party is the 45th Canadian federal election betting odds favorite?
This main Canadian federal election betting market askes for the sworn-in government following the April 28 election.
🔴 Liberal Party (LPC): -174
Well, the almost unthinkable has happened in this race: the Liberals have taken over as favorites to win the Federal Election.
Following Justin Trudeau's resignation and Mark Carney's election as the new party leader, the Liberals have surged in the polls. While an election victory is still far from guaranteed, it seems clear that Canadians' desire for change may not mean the party after all.
While it's far from a rule, the Ontario provincial government has been largely the opposite of the federal government over the last three decades. Ontario elected PC Doug Ford to a third government on Feb. 27.
Best odds: -174 via FanDuel Ontario | Implied win probability: 60%
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🔵 Conservatives (CPC): +126
The Conservative Party of Canada has been taken over as the front-runner to form the next government at our political betting sites in Canada. It's been losing ground over the last few weeks. Over the last month, the CPC has gone from -600 (85.71% implied win probability) to +126 (44.25% implied win probability).
While the CPC hasn't won a federal election since the Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011) in the not-too-distant past.
Best odds: +126 via FanDuel Ontario | Implied win probability: 44.25%
🪑 How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
The Liberals are the new favorites to win the election, but how many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 1, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 or below | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| 100 to 119 | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| 120 to 139 | +900 | 10% | $90 |
| 140 to 159 | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| 160 to 179 | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| 180 to 199 | +210 | 32.26% | $21 |
🪑 How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
The Conservatives are playing catchup in the polls, but how many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 1, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 or below | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| 100 to 119 | +430 | 5.3% | $43 |
| 120 to 139 | +150 | 40% | $15 |
| 140 to 159 | +370 | 21.28% | $37 |
| 160 to 179 | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| 180 to 199 | +900 | 10% | $90 |
🪑 How many seats will the Bloc Quebecois win?
The Bloc Quebecois have slipped behind the Liberals across many regions of their home province; how many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 1, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 9 | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| 10 to 19 | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| 20 to 29 | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
| 30 to 39 | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| 40 or above | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
🪑 How many seats will the NDP win?
The NDP once looked like a rising powerhouse, but polling shows them slipping nationwide. How many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 1, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 4 | +380 | 20.83% | $38 |
| 5 to 9 | -180 | 64.29% | $5.56 |
| 10 to 14 | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| 15 or above | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
❓Canadian general federal election FAQs
Where can I bet on the Canadian federal election?
You can bet on the Canadian Federal Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our political betting sites in Canada. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
We're starting to see extra markets emerge, such as the date of the election and which party will become the official opposition.
Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?
The Liberal Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian Federal Election, with odds of -174 representing a 63.5% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian federal election?
The Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian federal election?
The next Canadian federal election is set for Monday, April 28.
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