Kentucky Derby Long Shots & Sleeper Picks Today: Our Top Dark Horses for Churchill Downs
We've turned to Baeza as one of our Kentucky Derby long-shot picks after Grande was scratched on Friday.
Long shots like Baeza at 12-1 can lead to significant payouts during the Kentucky Derby. In the recent history of the event, 11 horses carrying odds of at least 26-1 have ended up in the top four since 2012. Last year’s $1 trifecta paid $1,113.84. And anyone who correctly picked the top four houses would have pocketed $8,254.
What makes for a good long shot in the Kentucky Derby odds this year to add to your Kentucky Derby picks? We're selecting a few sleepers ahead of Saturday's race at 6:57 p.m. ET.
👉 Our Kentucky Derby AI predictions project the full finishing order for the 20-horse field.
🏇 Kentucky Derby sleepers & long shots
Here are my favorite Kentucky Derby long-shot picks for the 2025 Run for the Roses and their Kentucky Derby odds from FanDuel Racing.
đź’°Luxor Cafe (15-1)
đź’°Baeza (12-1)
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🚨 My best Kentucky Derby long-shot picks
🎯 Luxor Cafe (15-1)
We get teased by Japanese horses every year, but one of these years, a Japanese horse will win the Kentucky Derby. It almost happened last year with Forever Young, who finished third in a photo finish to Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone.
Now, meet the latest Great Eastern Hope in this American Pharoah horse. And while the progeny of the 2015 Triple Crown winner haven’t blown up Triple Crown odds races, Luxor Cafe has shown the speed necessary to be a factor in this Derby. He comes in riding a four-race winning streak, recently capped with a resounding, five-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes that featured a scintillating 36.5-second final three furlongs.
Luxor Cafe has won twice on left-hand turn tracks, and his off-the-pace stalker style should travel well - emphasis on "travel." Can Luxor Cafe take his considerable speed to the U.S.? Not every Japanese invader can. While he’s not as strong as Forever Young, who raced in the Middle East against American horses (thus providing a gauge on his ability), Luxor Cafe beat the other Japanese horse in the field - Admire Daytona - twice.
And Admire Daytona came back to win the UAE Derby. Throw all of this in the hopper, and even if you can’t get past betting a Japanese horse to win America’s most prized race, get Luxor Cafe everywhere else on your exotic wagers.
🎯 Baeza (12-1)
I'll admit it. I was hoping this $1.2 million, first-crop son of four-time Grade 1-winner McKinzie found his way into the Derby 151 field, which he did Thursday via the scratch of another one of our long shot darlings - Rodriguez.
But this is an example of turning lemons into lemonade, because Baeza has a better chance of winning than Rodriguez did. A maiden winner in his four races (4-2-1-0), he brings the same speed caliber, illustrated by his 101 Beyer Speed Figure and 12.6-second final furlong racked up in his runner-up finish to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.
After seizing the lead in the stretch, Baeza led that race until the final sixteenth, anointing him as the closest threat to Derby-favorite Journalism in the field.
The irony here is that runner-up finish would have put Baeza in the field before this year. But Churchill Downs instituted a rule cutting the number of Derby qualifying points in any prep race fielding fewer than six horses. With that second-place finish in a five-horse field bringing 37.5 points instead of 50, Baeza and his connections were forced to bide their time and hope for attrition.
Attrition came - and we’re glad to see Baeza, his ability to handle 10 furlongs, and his stalking running style enter Gate 20 - the far outside. That’s the same gate that 80-1 shot Rich Strike - another 11th-hour entry - sprung from three years ago en route to his burp-in-the-universe victory. And Baeza, the half-brother of 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes and Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch, is a far better horse.
That stalking running style should travel well from that gate. Baeza can cruise inside as the cavalry charges inside of him and jockeys for position. Yes, there’s the concern he loses ground coming into the first turn. But with a fast expected pace, Baeza has plenty of time to make up that ground and begin picking off tired horses in the second turn and stretch.
Need more convincing? Flavien Prat - one of North America’s top jockeys - turned over the reins of his previous mount (Neoequos) to take Baeza’s reins. Between Prat’s intelligence and savvy and the patient guidance of underrated trainer John Shirreffs, who won this race 20 years ago with 50-1 Giacomo, we can’t wait to get Baeza on our tickets. And neither should you.
đź“Š Kentucky Derby odds & post positions
Here are the Kentucky Derby morning line odds via FanDuel Racing, along with the latest Kentucky Derby post positions for the 2025 Run for the Roses after Rodriguez (No. 4) and Grande (No. 10) were scratched from Saturday's race.
| 🏇 Horse | 🔢 Odds | 🚩 Post position | 🧍 Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 | 8 | Michael McCarthy |
| Sovereignty | 5-1 | 18 | Bill Mott |
| Sandman | 6-1 | 17 | Mark Casse |
| Baeza | 12-1 | 21 | John Shirreffs |
| Burnham Square | 12-1 | 9 | Ian Wilkes |
| Luxor Café | 15-1 | 7 | Noriyuki Hori |
| Citizen Bull | 20-1 | 1 | Bob Baffert |
| East Avenue | 20-1 | 10 | Brendan Walsh |
| Publisher | 20-1 | 13 | Steve Asmussen |
| Tiztastic | 20-1 | 14 | Steve Asmussen |
| Neoequos | 30-1 | 2 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| Final Gambit | 30-1 | 3 | Brad Cox |
| American Promise | 30-1 | 5 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Admire Daytona | 30-1 | 6 | Yukihiro Kato |
| Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | 11 | Whit Beckman |
| Render Judgment | 30-1 | 15 | Kenny McPeek |
| Coal Battle | 30-1 | 16 | Lonnie Briley |
| Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | 19 | Ethan Weste |
| Owen Almighty | 30-1 | 20 | Brian Lynch |
đź“ş How to watch the 2025 Kentucky Derby
đź“… Saturday, May 3
đź•• 6:57 p.m. ET
đź“Ť Churchill Downs (Louisville, Ky.)
📺 NBC | 🛜 Peacock | 📲 NBC Sports App
đź“° Kentucky Derby betting news
- FanDuel launches Pennsylvania casino jackpots ahead of Kentucky Derby
- FanDuel adds new promos for 2025 Kentucky Derby
- FanDuel TV to broadcast all Kentucky Derby preparation races
- FanDuel announce Shaboozey as headline act at Kentucky Derby party
- Kentucky sportsbook wagers down month-over-month in February
- Kentucky pari-mutuel betting handle drops in December
🎟️ How to bet Kentucky Derby long shots
There are a variety of ways to bet Derby long shots. Of course, there’s the straight win/place/show wagers. Keep in mind that a favorite hasn’t won the Derby for cashable purposes since Justify began his eventual Triple Crown campaign in 2018. The last five champions: 2024’s Mystik Dan (18-1), 2023’s Mage (15-1), 2022’s Rich Strike (80-1), 2021’s Medina Spirit (12-1), and Authentic in the pandemic Derby of 2020 (9-1) weren’t the public’s choices.
🌴 Kentucky Derby exotics
Then, you get into the exotics, which are multi-horse wagers that require you to pick the order of finish. Bet an exacta and you’re picking the two horses yout think will finish first and second. Trifectas demand you pick the top three in order. Take it one horse further and you get the superfecta, requiring you to pick the top four in order.
There are two different ways to bet exactas, trifectas and superfectas: straight and box. A straight exacta means you pick the horse or horses you think will win, then the horse or horses you think will finish second underneath. For example, Baeza over Luxor Cafe and Tiztastic. You win your bet if Baeza wins and either Luxor Cafe or Tiztastic finish second.
📦 Kentucky Derby box wagers
With a box, you can throw all three on a ticket, and if any combination finishes first or second, in any order, you win the bet. It works the same for a trifecta or superfecta. A box wager offers flexibility, but that comes at a price. Understand the more horses you throw in a box, the more expensive the wager.
A box wager is good for beginners and good if you like several horses, but aren’t quite sure on the order of finish.
âť“ Kentucky Derby FAQs
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby 2025?
Americans can legally wager on horse racing in the following states:
Kentucky sports betting is up and running, so Kentucky horse racing fans should be able to bet from anywhere in the state for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. You can also check out our list of the best Kentucky Derby betting sites here!
Canadians can bet on the Kentucky Derby at bet365.
Who is the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite?
Journalism (3-1) and Sovereignty (5-1) are the betting favorites to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
How long is the Kentucky Derby track?
The race distance for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is 1 and 1/4 miles, or 10 furlongs.
When is the 2025 Kentucky Derby this year?
The 2025 edition of the Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 3. The race will begin at approximately 6:57 p.m. ET.
Where is the 2025 Kentucky Derby held?
The Kentucky Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
đź’µ Best Kentucky Derby betting sites
Want to bet on the Kentucky Derby? Here are the top-rated Kentucky Derby betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos ahead of the 2025 Run for the Roses:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
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