Monaco Grand Prix Predictions & Odds: Best F1 Picks, Monaco GP Long Shot
The crown jewel of the Formula 1 season is less than a week away as drivers prepare for the vaunted, prestigious, and unique Monaco Grand Prix.
F1 Championship odds favorite Oscar Piastri and teammate Lando Norris are once again co-favorites entering festivities, while Max Verstappen - who won his fourth straight Emilia Romagna Grand Prix last week - is receiving the third-shortest odds across our best F1 betting sites.
Our Monaco Grand Prix odds and predictions feature Norris, Verstappen and last year's winner, highlighting which one is the best to back for Sunday's race at Circuit de Monaco (7:30 a.m. ET, ESPNEWS).
🥇2025 Monaco Grand Prix odds & favorites🥇
Monaco Grand Prix odds via DraftKings as of Monday, May 19
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +180 | 35.71% | $18 |
| Oscar Piastri | +180 | 35.71% | $18 |
| Max Verstappen | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| George Russell | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Carlos Sainz | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Alex Albon | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Isaak Hadjar | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
💰 Monaco Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
Here are my best Monaco Grand Prix predictions for Sunday's race at Circuit de Monaco in Monte Carlo. Picks based on odds from our best sports betting apps.
🏆 Pick to win Monaco Grand Prix: Lando Norris ⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +260 via Caesars | Implied probability: 27.78%
Norris enjoyed a resurgent grand prix at Imola, finishing second after qualifying in fourth. He now has four second-place finishes in seven races, winning once while finishing off the podium once. He has looked better in recent races, beating Piastri last week for the first time since Japan, the season's third race.
Norris finished fourth at Circuit de Monaco last year, his second-best finish in Monte Carlo. He came third in 2021, his best result at the storied street race.
I'm not as confident in Norris winning this race for one primary reason. He can't rely on his high-performing car bailing him out on the circuit's slowest street race.
That said, his experience and skill set give him a good chance to win for the first time at the opulent event.
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💎 Best value bet to win Monaco Grand Prix: Max Verstappen ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +400 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 20%
Verstappen is the best value bet and my best pick to win. The Dutchman has the momentum after executing perfectly in a strategic masterclass in Italy last week.
The resurgent four-time defending champion finished second and fourth in the two races before last week's victory and enters Sunday's high-brow event with confidence. In addition, Circuit de Monaco is one of the most challenging tracks, featuring Fairmont Hairpin, the tightest turn in Formula 1, among other tricky turns.
Securing first place in qualifying is paramount, as over 70% of winners since 2004 have taken pole.
And it's the slowest street race, perfect for bridging the performance gap with McLaren. Those factors are conducive to a driver with such pedigree and experience, who has won two of the last four races in Monte Carlo.
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🎯 Best long shot to win Monaco Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +1100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 8.33%
While +1100 isn't a long-shot price, the 8.33% implied probability makes it a slightly more speculative pick. Anyone with odds longer than George Russell (+1400 at DraftKings) has a minuscule chance of winning, which the odds reflect.
It's Leclerc's home race, and he won last year.
While he's performed poorly in the last two races (sixth and seventh), Monaco wipes the slate clean. The driver who takes the pole will likely stand atop the podium. Ferrari's inadequacies won't be nearly as apparent on a course with such a low average speed (93 mph).
A winning $10 bet at FanDuel, which offers an outlier +1100 price, would profit $110.
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🏆 Past Monaco Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Monaco Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇲🇨 Charles Leclerc | Scuderia Ferrari |
| 2023 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | 🇲🇽 Sergio Perez | Red Bull-RBPT |
| 2021 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2020 | Cancelled | Cancelled |
| 2019 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | 🇦🇺 Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | 🇩🇪 Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | 🇩🇪 Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
📈 Monaco Grand Prix trends & history
🏎️ The Monaco Grand Prix features the Fairmont Hairpin, the tightest turn in Formula 1
🏎️ It's one of the most demanding tracks, demanding precision, with no room for error
🏎️ The track is just 3.3 kilometers (approximately 2.07 miles), one of the shortest circuits in the F1 calendar. Drivers repeat the short circuit 78 times
🏎️ The first race in Monaco took place 1929, and it became a part of the official F1 World Championship in its inaugural season in 1950
🏎️ It takes 250 workers six weeks to set up the street circuit and three weeks to dismantle it
🏎️ More than 70% of the races since 2004 have been won by the driver starting in pole position
🏎️ The total race distance is about 160 miles (260 kms), about 28 miles shorter than FIA's mandated 190-mile minimum race distance for F1 races. It's the only exception on the F1 circuit
🏎️ It's also the only race where drivers navigate a tunnel
📺 How to watch the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix
📅 Race date: Sunday, May 25
🕒 Start time: 7:30 a.m. ET
📍 Track: Circuit de Monaco (Monte Carlo, Monaco)
📺 TV: ESPNNEWS
💻 Streaming: ESPN+
☀️ Weather: 68 degrees, 6 mph to 10 mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation
❓ Monaco Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Monaco Grand Prix?
Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are the Monaco Grand Prix odds co-favorites while getting +180 odds, carrying a 35.71% implied probability.
What are the odds for the Monaco Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri (+180), Lando Norris (+180), and Max Verstappen (+400) are getting the shortest odds to win the Monaco Grand Prix at DraftKings.
What time is the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix?
The Monaco Grand Prix starts at 7:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, May 18.
How to watch the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix
You can watch the Monaco Grand Prix on ESPNEWS or ESPN+.
Who has won the most Monaco Grand Prix races?
Ayrton Senna won the most Monaco Grand Prix races (6).
🏎️ Here are our best F1 betting sites:
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