Free Preakness Stakes Picks & Predictions 2025: Our Best Bet to Win Today at Pimlico Race Course

We have another no-brainer–and familiar–favorite for today’s 150th Preakness Stakes from Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, as 8-5 favorite Journalism headlines the field.

But regardless of where you want to turn, we have other free Preakness Stakes picks and predictions to help you make winning wagers. The second jewel to the American Triple Crown comes with plenty of cachet. Win the 1 3/16-mile Preakness (Saturday at 7:01 p.m. ET on NBC) and you run past the Pimlico winner’s circle into equine history. 

But even for prohibitive Preakness Stakes odds favorites like Journalism, it’s never easy. As always, there are certain trends and benchmarks successful Preakness contenders must meet - or surmount.

Here, we break down why Journalism should write a happy ending this time and which long shots and trends play into building successful Preakness tickets.

🏇 Latest Preakness Stakes odds 2025

Here's a look at the updated post position list and odds from FanDuel Racing for the 2025 Preakness Stakes:

💰 Preakness Stakes picks and predictions

⭐ Preakness Stakes favorite: Journalism (Post 2/8-5)

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again for the grandstand and the infield: You’re once again looking at the best horse in the Preakness 150 field. Losing the Kentucky Derby in the last sixteenth to a worthy counterpart in Sovereignty doesn’t diminish the fact that Journalism is a worthy Preakness Stakes favorite.

Nor does it diminish the fact that Journalism’s record warrants that favored status. He’s hit the board (4-1-1) in all six of his races, owns three graded stakes victories, easily has this distance covered, owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field (a 108).He also has a proper running style (stalking) that Preakness winners have and has already vanquished two horses in the field - Sandman and American Promise - by comfortable margins.

Could he bounce from that Derby finish? Of course. But Pimlico morning-line author Keith Feustle didn’t need to watch a lot of tape to make the son of Curlin the prohibitive favorite. Nor did he need to spend much time looking at the plethora of speed horses in the field to understand that a stalker of Journalism’s quality can run to his odds here.

🎯 Preakness Stakes long shot: River Thames (Post 6/9-2)

Three worthy Preakness Stakes long shots belong on your tickets. But instead of Goal Oriented or Clever Again, we’re giving the slight nod here to this Maclean’s Music progeny. Just like Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher gave the nod to a move he usually shakes his head at making.

In his otherwise stellar career, Pletcher’s perpetual pain point has been the Preakness. He’s 0-for-10 in the Triple Crown’s second jewel, hitting the board only once - with Impeachment in 2000. He rarely runs his charges in the Preakness; the only time he sends one of his Derby horses to Pimlico is when they’ve won the Derby.

That’s happened twice: with Super Saver (an eighth in 2010) and Always Dreaming (seventh in 2017).

Here, however, none of that dissuaded Pletcher from skipping the Derby and sending River Thames to the Preakness. In other words, tell us you have a potential sleeper without telling us you have a potential sleeper. River Thames qualified for the Derby, courtesy of a neck loss to Derby winner Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in March and a three-quarters-length third in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April.

Putting aside for the moment the reflective aura of Sovereignty’s Derby victory to River Thames, those two victories illustrated why River Thames can steal this race. He took the lead coming around the far turn of the Fountain of Youth and held it until the final 30 yards. In the Blue Grass, River Thames stalked his way around the track and was just outkicked by Burnham Square at the wire.

That running style, solid results in two strong Derby preps, victories in his first two races (by a combined 11 1/4 lengths), and freshness at not running the Derby all make River Thames a must-use presence on your tickets.

In case you need further coaxing, let history be your guide. River Thames will start from Post 6, the most successful Preakness post, one producing the most winners (17) in event history.

🥇 Our pick to win: Journalism (Post 2/8-5)

We’ll admit it. We’re drawing a chalky line through recent history here as we disappoint all of you looking for That Trendy Pick. 

As we like to do, we’ll point out all the flaws first. Yes, we know favorites are 0-for-the-2020s in the Preakness. We know that Cloud Computing in 2017 was the last - and only  - horse this century to find the Pimlico winner’s circle from Post 2. We know that of the 11 Derby runners-up who ran the Preakness this century, only Exaggerator in 2016 managed to win. For that matter, we know that Derby expats of late - dating to War of Will in 2019 - have been late to the Pimlico finish line.

And we know that Journalism is going to take plenty of money, especially in a nine-horse field where he is clearly the best pick. 

Which brings us to why we’re going with the son of 2007 Preakness champion Curlin. And speaking of Curlin, his offspring have hit the Preakness board 60% of the time since 2014. Of his last five progeny running the Preakness, Curlin has a winner (Exaggerator), a runner-up (Ride On Curlin), a show finisher (Tenfold) and a fourth-place runner (Good Magic). 

Yes, even though chalk isn’t sexy, and even though favorites have won six of the last 20 Preaknesses, we simply can’t put the chalk down when writing Journalism’s story. When you write that story, note he would have won a 1 3/16-mile Derby against a better field than the one he’ll face here. 

Yes, chalk isn’t sexy. But sometimes, the story tells you who the best horse in the field is. And this is one of those stories.

🌩️ Preakness Stakes weather

Today's weather at Pimlico Race Course looks generally favorable, despite fears that rain could impact things earlier in the week. Yesterday's storms brought about an inch of rain to the track.

Temperatures range from 70-88 F today in Baltimore, with a brief period of thunderstorms in the mid-afternoon. Unlike the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on Friday, it looks like today's races shouldn't face delays.

🔮 Preakness Stakes expert picks

• Preakness Stakes picks and predictions
• Preakness Stakes long shots
• Preakness Stakes AI predictions
• Preakness Stakes odds and position

📺 How to watch the Preakness Stakes

• When: Saturday, May 17
• Post time: 7:01 p.m. ET
• Where: Pimlico Race Course (Baltimore, Md.)
• How to watch: NBC, starting at 2 p.m. ET

🧠 Preakness Stakes betting strategies

As Exaggerator displayed in 2016, you can win the Preakness as a closer. And as every horse since then has shown, you probably won’t win it as a closer. That’s because front-runners, pressers and stalkers are the preferred genus of Preakness champions.

How preferred? Fourteen of the last 16 Preakness champions were in the front half of the field after the first half-mile. Take that deeper and you find 10 of the last 16 winners were in the first three spots at that point. But we’re not done. Six of the last 16 led the race at the half-mile mark.

This all includes last year’s winner - Seize the Grey, who seized the led at the quarter-mile mark and never relinquished it.

Once again, the principal principle at the Preakness? Bet the front-end speed. In 16 of the last 20 editions, the winner was in the front half of the field after the first half-mile. The last three winners: Seize the Grey (first), National Treasure (first) and Early Voting (second) were in the top three at the half-mile mark.

When mudder Exaggerator won that 2016 Preakness, he not only took advantage of a sloppy track, but a fast pace that made it possible for him to fly out of the clouds from 11 lengths back. The other two horses who came from more than five lengths back were Curlin (2007) and Afleet Alex (2005) and both benefited on the fastest and second-fastest half-mile clocking in the last 20 years.

That said, when constructing a vertical ticket (exacta, trifecta, superfecta), throw in a closer. Your bankroll will usually thank you. Last year’s $1 trifecta paid a modest $183.70, courtesy of favorites Mystik Dan (2.40-1) and Catching Freedom (3.80-1) finishing second and third, respectively.

That’s been the exception. Five years ago, Jesus’ Team finished third behind Swiss Skydiver and Derby winner Authentic - at 40.90-1. Your trifecta payout - $1,205.70 on a $1 ticket. When War of Will won the 2019 Preakness, Everfast finished second at 29-1, producing a $473.50 exacta payout on a $2 bet. In 2017, when Cloud Computing won, Senior Investment capped a $2,194.60 payout on a $1 trifecta when he finished third at 31-1.

So when you’re looking for a closer to fill out your ticket, look at Sandman, the 4-1 second favorite. The Arkansas Derby champion - where he enjoyed a dream trip unlikely to be repeated here - finished seventh in the Derby.

He also happens to be the only closer in the field.

Preakness Stakes trends and stats

Every Triple Crown race comes with plenty of uncertainty and plenty of storylines. But with that uncertainty comes certain trends and stats that give horseplayers a handicapping foundation to build upon.

Here, we look at four trends and stats that build on our betting tips above.

• Betting on Baffert: Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness a record eight times - all since 1997. That includes Triple Crown winners American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018), along with three others who came out of the Kentucky Derby. But it also includes 2023 winner National Treasure, who missed the Derby due to Baffert’s three-year ban from running on Churchill Downs tracks. You give Baffert a speed-favoring track and a front-end runner, and good things tend to happen.
• Chucking Churchill, Picking Pimlico: Six of the last eight Preakness winners - including the five this decade - did not run the Kentucky Derby. This is the latest Preakness plot twist that flipped the one-time shibboleth that running the first leg of the Triple Crown gives you a hoof up on the second leg. War of Will (2019) was the last Derby alum to win the Preakness. This is not a happy story for Derby runner-up Journalism, a day-at-the-beach trend for Sandman (seventh), or a promising omen for American Promise (16th).
• Forget the Favorite? This decade has been a downer for favorites. Since Justify’s 2018 victory en route to the Triple Crown, we’ve seen War of Will (6-1), filly Swiss Skydiver (11-1), Rombauer (11-1), Early Voting (6-1), National Treasure (3-1), and Seize the Grey (9.80-1) all beat their respective favorites. And along with the aforementioned, just since 2011, we’ve had Shackelford (12.60-1 in 2011), Oxbow (15.40-1 in 2013), and Cloud Computing (13.40-1 in 2017) win at double-digit odds. Six of the last 20 winners have gone off at double-digit odds.
• Post Notes: While post position isn’t as important in the Preakness as it is in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, posts 4-7 have produced the most winners. Post 6 (17 winners) leads the field in wins and win percentage (14.9%). Post 4, Post 5, and Post 7 have 14 winners apiece. River Thames will start from Post 6, with Heart of Honor (Post 4), Pay Billy (Post 5), and Sandman (Post 7) filling those favored gates. Conversely, Gosger is fighting a 4-for-79 record of colts starting in Post 9. Meanwhile, favorite Journalism in Post 2 and American Promise in Post 3 are trying to be only the second colts this century to win from those posts.

🎟️ How to bet on horse racing

Some other general strategies to consider for your Preakness Stakes picks that apply in general when betting on horse racing include:

• Understanding the basics: Horse racing offers a variety of betting options, but the most common bet is to pick a horse to win, place, or show. A "win" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, a "place" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first or second, and a "show" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, second, or third. Additionally, you can bet on multiple horses in different combinations, such as exactas (picking the first and second-place horses in order) or trifectas (picking the first three horses in order).
• Handicapping the race: Before placing your bets, it's important to do some research and analyze the horses, jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and past performances. Look at factors such as recent form, speed figures, class level, and how well the horse has performed on similar track surfaces and distances. You can also consider factors like post position, workout times, and any changes in equipment or jockey.
• Placing your bets: Once you've done your research and identified potential winners, it's time to place your bets. Head to the betting window or use a betting app to place your wagers. Be sure to specify the type of bet you're making (win, place, show, exacta, etc.), the horse's program number, and the amount you want to wager. Double-check your bet slip before confirming to ensure accuracy

🏇 Horse racing betting odds pages

💵 Best Preakness Stakes betting sites

Want to bet on the Preakness Stakes? Here are the best horse racing betting sites and the best sportsbook promos for Saturday's race:

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