Aces vs. Liberty Prediction & A'ja Wilson Prop Bet: Today's WNBA Odds and Expert Picks

In a battle between two players who've accounted for five of the last seven WNBA MVPs, A'ja Wilson leads her Las Vegas Aces against Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty.

Rob Paul

Last updated: May 17, 2025 10:17 AM EDT • 3 min read

Pictured: Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson celebrates after scoring against the New York Liberty during game two of the 2024 WNBA Semi-finals at Barclays Center. Photo by Wendell Cruz via Imagn Images.

The New York Liberty begin their WNBA title defense against the Las Vegas Aces in their season-opening game on Saturday at 1 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN+, Disney+). Our Aces vs. Liberty prediction backs the WNBA championship odds favorites to cover at home as 3.5-point betting favorites at Barclay's Center in New York.

Read to the bottom to see our player prop bet for reigning MVP A'ja Wilson

💰 Aces vs. Liberty expert picks for WNBA

🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best WNBA odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Against the spread pick: Liberty -3.5 (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Liberty (-179 via Caesars) ⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 168.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🏀 Aces vs. Liberty prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Liberty 85, Aces 80

These teams are all too familiar with each other after the Liberty earned revenge on the Aces while knocking them out of the playoffs last year, a season after losing to Las Vegas in the WNBA Finals. New York is the defending champion this time, with two-time MVP Breanna Stewart and All-Stars Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones hoping to lead the Liberty to a repeat.

To bolster the club's efforts this season, New York added Natasha Cloud, and Marine Johannes returns after missing all of last season to focus on the Olympics. While Vegas is equally talented with Wilson and her three MVPs carrying the load, the Aces don't boast the same continuity.

Following the team's failures to capture a third straight title, the Aces traded Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks while adding six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd into the mix alongside Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray. Though Becky Hammon's lineup is loaded, it could take time for Loyd to mesh alongside Wilson.

The chemistry of Sandy Brondello's team is the reason I expect New York to handle business at home in its season opener. The Liberty were No. 1 in offensive rating (109.6) and No. 3 in defensive rating (97.9) last season, while Las Vegas' defensive issues ended up being the team's downfall.

While I don't think New York is a better WNBA championship bet than Las Vegas given how short the Liberty's odds are at our best sports betting apps, the Aces will endure some growing pains early.

✅ Best bet: Liberty -3.5 (-115 via bet365)

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👀 Star prop to watch: A'ja Wilson Over 11.5 rebounds

Aces vs. Liberty Prediction & A'ja Wilson Prop Bet — Pictured: Las Vegas Aces forward A'ja Wilson drives past New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart. Photo by Wendell Cruz via Imagn Images.

Nobody can stop Wilson, not even New York.

The six-time All-Star averaged a career high in both points per game (26.9) and rebounds (11.9) last season while going Over 11.5 boards in 19 of 38 outings (50%). This Liberty team is loaded, so expect Wilson to play upward of 38 minutes and enjoy plenty of opportunities to clean the glass while cruising past double-digit rebounds.

✅ Best odds: +100 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $10 profit)

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📈 Aces vs. Liberty odds

Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.

🪧 Aces vs. Liberty opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Spread: Aces +4.5 (-105) | Liberty -4.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Aces +175 | Liberty -210
Over/Under: Over 167.5 (-110) | Under 167.5 (-110)

🚑 Aces vs. Liberty injury report

📡 How to watch Aces vs. Liberty live

📅 Saturday, May 17
🕗 1 p.m. ET
📍 Barclays Center (New York)
📺 ABC | 🛜 ESPN+, Disney+

💵 Best WNBA betting sites

Looking to bet on the WNBA? Here are our best sportsbooks as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for the WNBA.

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Written By:
Rob Paul

Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.