Our Best NBA Player Prop Bets Tonight: Expert Picks & Predictions for April 3
There are only a handful of games remaining in the NBA regular season, as teams are either battling for a playoff spot or racing to the bottom (or top, depending on how you look at it) in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.
The first of our best NBA player props today comes from the latter, while we're targeting teams in the thick of the postseason picture for the other three.
Will we be burned by taking the Under on two talented scorers, or are the lines at our best NBA betting sites too high?
💰 Best NBA player prop bets & odds tonight: April 3
Here are my best NBA player prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
- Quentin Grimes player prop pick: Under 23.5 points (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Ja Morant player prop pick: Under 25.5 points (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jaren Jackson Jr. player prop pick: Over 1.5 assists (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Rui Hachimura player prop pick: Over 10.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Best NBA player prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best NBA player prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.
🏀 Quentin Grimes (76ers) Under 23.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $8)
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I know a lot of people got burned on Grimes' points Under when he was on a scoring rampage, but bettors need to be goldfish: forget the losses on yesterday and focus on today. And today, we're once again seeing great value on Grimes going under his scoring total.
The guard is projected to rack up only 18.6 points on Thursday night. Based on that, we're getting nearly 40% +EV on this Under. But you're probably wondering what that means, exactly.
Well, if you were to determine "fair" odds or the break-even price on Under 23.5 points based on Grimes' projection, you'd get a far, far shorter number. To be more precise, the break-even price on this prop is -343. Yes, you read that right.
Therefore, as long as this total stays at 23.5, you can bet the Under at any number. The same can be said if it falls to 22.5, though I don't see that happening because the public is still heavily backing Grimes' points Over.
📊 Quentin Grimes player prop odds vs. Bucks
🏀 Ja Morant (Grizzlies) Under 25.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $8)
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Unlike the 76ers, the Memphis Grizzlies are very much trying to win, and that was evident in their last game when Ja Morant dropped 36 points in a losing effort against the Warriors.
For his part, Morant has been spectacular across March and the early stages of April, which makes this bet pretty terrifying. However, I have to trust the projections, which tell us that the star guard is more likely to go Under this number than he is to go Over it.
Morant is projected for just 21 points on Thursday. The break-even price on Under 25.5 points based on that projection is -305. It's, therefore, not surprising to see that a number of our best sports betting sites drop this total. DraftKings is at 23.5 already, so be sure to get to BetMGM before it follows suit.
📊 Ja Morant player prop odds vs. Heat
🏀 Jaren Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies) Over 1.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +140 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $14)
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Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. isn't exactly known for his abilities as a facilitator, but we don't need him to be prime Rajon Rondo to clear this mark.
Jackson has recorded at least one assist in each of his last nine games, and he's averaging exactly 2.0 for the season. On Thursday, he's projected to finish with right around that number at 2.1.
So, though that doesn't sound like a huge buffer on the two he needs to go Over 1.5, these odds provide us with a ton of value.
Based on that projection, we're seeing this is significantly better than a coin flip, with the break-even price at -157 (61% implied probability). However, these +145 odds suggest there's only a 40% chance Jackson goes Over this mark. That gap is exactly why we're getting nearly 50% +EV on this bet.
📊 Jaren Jackson Jr. player prop odds vs. Heat
🏀 Rui Hachimura (Lakers) Over 10.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.09)
One of my favorite things to do in big games like these, featuring some of the league's most prolific players, is to look for mispriced props on role players on either team. That's what we're doing here with Rui Hachimura's points Over.
Hachimura is projected for 12.3 points tonight, and yet almost all of our best sports betting apps have his total at 10.5 with limited juice on the Over. So, are we just off with the projection then? I don't think so.
We're seeing sharp movement at Pinnacle to the Over, and FanDuel has already moved this line to 11.5. I trust the projection and the value we're getting on this prop based on it.
📊 Rui Hachimura player prop odds vs. Warriors
🏀 Best NBA betting sites
Looking to bet on NBA player props tonight? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for tonight's NBA games.
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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