NBA MVP Odds: Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the Betting Favorite Due To Free Throws?
Our NBA MVP odds update breaks down where Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks on the totem pole. We also discuss whether he relies on a soft whistle to drive up his stats, since refereeing took center stage following the last time these two teams met.
Read on for our case as to why Gilgeous-Alexander deserves the MVP award regardless of the ridiculous narrative being built to discredit his amazing accomplishments this season.
📊 Latest NBA MVP odds
Updated NBA MVP odds from our best live betting sites.
🐎 2025 NBA MVP race
Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to run away with the NBA MVP award, as evidenced by the odds. Even after Denver superstar Nikola Jokic posted a 61-10-11 triple-double on Tuesday night, the Thunder man is a heavily-juiced favorite.
ESPN BET lists Gilgeous-Alexander at -2000 to win the award for the first time in his career. This means the 26-year-old has a 95.24% implied probability of hearing his name called over Jokic (+1800) and LeBron James (+50000). He's also a +175 betting favorite by the NBA Finals MVP odds while leading the first-place Thunder.
For all intents and purposes, the latest NBA MVP odds update shows it's Gilgeous-Alexander's award to lose, but does questionable refereeing aid him? Detroit head coach J.B. Bickerstaff highlighted the questionable officiating in a loss to Oklahoma City a couple of weeks ago:
🦓 Is there any validity to refereeing impacting the MVP race?
While Bickerstaff's comments didn't single out Gilgeous-Alexander - or even reference the Thunder much - those who've built a fictitious narrative about the MVP front-runner ran with those quotes.
As such, instead of talking about Oklahoma City's chance to improve to a record 29-1 against the Eastern Conference this season in tonight's rematch, many are discussing officiating. Are officials helping the Thunder and, by association, Gilgeous-Alexander?
No.
Oklahoma City ranks 26th in the NBA with 20.4 free-throw attempts per game, and the Pistons sit 11th (22.3), which should come as no surprise given the physicality of Bikerstaff's team. There are outliers - such as the last meeting - but overall, the Thunder haven't gone to the charity stripe as frequently as some may assume.
⚡️ Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA MVP favorite
Gilgeous-Alexander goes to the line more than anybody not named Giannis Antetokounmpo, but that's more indicative of his style of play than it is a soft whistle.
The guard leads the league in drives per game with 20.6, nearly 2.5 more per night than his next-closest competitor (Jalen Brunson with 18.2). Gilgeous-Alexander also takes more shots (10.1) than anyone in that area. Most fouls occur within the paint, so it's no surprise a shifty, ball-dominant player is fouled closer to the basket.
As Oklahoma City prepares to take the court against Detroit tonight for the first time since Bickerstaff's rant, the next NBA MVP should be the focal point, not refereeing.
Gilgeous-Alexander is going for his 69th consecutive game with 20 points. He leads the league in points per game (32.8), as well as 30, 40, and 50-point performances, despite sitting joint-34th in minutes per game (34.2). All of this while shooting 52.2% from the field.
The superstar is first in net rating (17.4), third in offensive rating (122.5), and fifth in defensive rating (105.1). He is the only player in the league to feature inside the top 10 in the latter two categories, and he ranks top five in each.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best player on one of the best regular-season teams the NBA has ever seen. Oklahoma City is on pace to break several league records, including the average margin of victory (plus-13) across a single campaign.
All of this is to say that citing free throws as the reason Gilgeous-Alexander leads the MVP odds race is lazy.
🔢 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 2025 stats
Here are Gilgeous-Alexander's stats for the 2024-25 NBA season (bolded numbers signify league-leading stat)
| Stats | Per game average |
|---|---|
| Points | 32.8 |
| Assists | 6.4 |
| Rebounds | 5.0 |
| Steals | 1.7 |
| Blocks | 1.0 |
| 3-PT made | 2.1 |
| FT made | 8.1 |
❓ NBA MVP FAQs
Who is the NBA MVP odds favorite?
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the betting favorite to win NBA MVP honors with -1400 odds, which represent a 93.33% implied probability, according to our odds converter.
Who won the NBA MVP last year?
Nikola Jokic secured his third NBA MVP trophy in four seasons in 2024, ranking in the top 10 in points (26.4), rebounds (12.4), and assists (9.0) to run away with the award.
When will the NBA MVP be decided?
We can expect this year's award to be decided at a similar time as last season, which was during the NBA playoffs on May 8.
What is the NBA MVP trophy called?
The NBA MVP trophy was renamed as the Michael Jordan Trophy. It's awarded annually to the NBA's most valuable player.
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