NBA Picks Today: Monday’s Best Player Picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em Predictions for March 31
The NBA playoffs are around the corner, giving us tight seeding races to watch–and some tanking teams that really make things interesting. We’ve got a mix of players on both sides of that equation featured in our Underdog NBA picks today, including a lower for James Harden and a higher for Mark Williams.
💰 Best NBA picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em predictions
🎯 James Harden Lower than 28.5 Points + Assists⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Zach Edey Lower than 15.5 Points + Rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Mark Williams Higher than 24.5 Points + Rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Domantas Sabonis Lower than 17.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Davion Mitchell Higher than 10.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐
🏆 Today’s best NBA player picks
🎯 James Harden ⬇️ 28.5 Points + Assists
Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers took on the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. Harden played 35 minutes in the loss, racking up 24 points and dishing out eight assists in the process. He now gets the unenviable task of playing the Orlando Magic with no rest. It’s fair to project him for a below-average performance.
Harden has played nearly an even split between the one and the two this year, with the slim majority of his minutes coming at shooting guard. That’s trouble - Orlando leads the NBA in points per game allowed to the position at 20.8. Fade Harden tonight with the Magic also leading the way in total assists allowed per game (22.8).
🎯 Zach Edey ⬇️ 15.5 Points + Rebounds
The Memphis Grizzlies are hosting a home-and-home over the next two days with an interim coach at the helm, so things could get interesting with their rotations. The first of these matchups comes against the red-hot Boston Celtics, who rank second in points and 12th in rebounds allowed per game to opposing centers.
Boston’s high-scoring, perimeter-based offensive scheme could easily lead to Edey getting played off the floor. Likewise, an early lead for Boston could lead Memphis to empty the bench earlier than usual. There are just far more paths for Edey to post less than 15.5 points and rebounds than for him to post more.
🎯 Mark Williams ⬆️ 24.5 Points + Rebounds
It’s tanking season - both the Utah Jazz and Charlotte Hornets find themselves competing not for playoff seeding but for lottery positioning. While this usually creates a good climate for lowers, I want a higher for Charlotte’s starting center, especially now that LaMelo Ball has been shut down.
Mark Williams is averaging 14.9 points and 10.8 rebounds since the All-Star Break. That gives us an average that clears this projection by a full point or rebound. Now, with less competition on the glass or easy buckets near the rim, Williams those rates should tick up. Back him against a Jazz defense that doesn’t play interior defense.
🎯 Domantas Sabonis ⬇️ 17.5 Points
The Sacramento Kings are lost. They’re 1-3 since Sabonis returned from injury four games ago, suffering blowout losses to the Celtics, Thunder, and Magic. Sabonis averaged 15 points per game over this sample, recording higher than 17.5 points in just one of those outings. He now gets a road date with his former team, the Indiana Pacers.
Sabonis just doesn’t see the volume in this offense necessary to beat this projection. When playing with the newly acquired Zach LaVine, Sabonis is averaging a slim 14 points per game. His usage rate has ticked down from 21.7% before the deal to 21% after–and six fewer minutes.
🎯 Davion Mitchell ⬆️ 10.5 Points
The NBA Play-In Tournament-bound Miami Heat get the lottery-bound Washington Wizards tonight. Washington is playing at the sixth-fastest pace since the All-Star break, opening up loads of opportunities for opposing scorers. That's led to point guards scoring a league-high 28.5 points per game against them over the last 15 games.
Mitchell isn’t a high-volume shooter, but he could be one in this matchup. He is averaging 9.9 points per game since the All-Star break. While Mitchell hasn’t played the Wizards with the Heat this year, he did score 10 points over 27 minutes against them with Toronto. The Heat have played him for 31.5 minutes per game since the break, so look for him to tally at least an extra point.
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