Duke vs. Houston Early Picks, Predictions & Odds: March Madness Final Four
The two best teams in the country have been on a collision course for the Final Four since the NCAA Tournament bracket was unveiled, and Duke and Houston ended up on the same side.
The two are set to meet on Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET (CBS) at the Alamodome in San Antonio as we look at the Duke vs. Houston early picks, predictions, and odds for their Final Four matchup in March Madness.
With the Blue Devils leading the March Madness odds entering the Final Four, they're 4.5-point betting favorites against the Cougars in a Final Four that features all four No. 1 seeds for the first time since 2008.
🏀 Duke vs. Houston opening odds: Final Four betting lines
The Duke vs. Houston early odds below are via bet365.
| Market | Duke | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-110) | +4.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -210 | +175 |
| Total (O/U) | Over 136.5 (-110) | Under 136.5 (-110) |
| National championship odds | +105 via Caesars | +400 via BetRivers |
For the last month or so, Duke and Houston have looked like the two best teams in the country, with both sitting in the top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Even so, the Blue Devils still look a notch above the Cougars and our March Madness betting sites agree, with Duke being the clear favorite.
However, that's not to say the oddsmakers don't respect Houston. This is the smallest spread for Duke since it was a 3.5-point favorite against Auburn on Dec. 4, and I don't expect the lines to see much movement.
🔮 My early Duke vs. Houston pick: March Madness Final Four
Here is my best Duke vs. Houston prediction for the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and my Auburn vs. Florida early picks.
🎯 Prediction: Duke -4.5
📊 Best odds: -108 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 51.92%
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This is the game everyone wanted to see. The best defense in the country (Houston is No. 1 by KenPom) and the best offense in the country (Duke is No. 1 by KenPom) meeting with a trip to the national championship on the line. And regardless of who wins this one, I think the winner will beat Auburn/Florida and be crowned the March Madness champ.
But entering the NCAA Tournament, Duke was the favorite to take the title home, and there's been no reason to second-guess that through the first four rounds of March Madness. The Blue Devils are the most talented team in the country, with Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg leading the charge.
Even if Houston's ferocious defense can contain Flagg, Jon Scheyer's team just has too much talent. Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach are projected lottery picks by the NBA draft odds, Tyrese Proctor is averaging 17 PPG and shooting 64% from three in March Madness, and Sion James might be the most underrated player in the country.
Duke's defense is just so long and athletic, it's hard to imagine Houston putting up enough points to cover. Even with their depth and shooting efficiency, the Cougars don't have the size, nor the one dominant talent to lean on against a nearly perfect Blue Devils roster.
This Duke team is making an argument to go down as the best college basketball team of this century.
🔢 Live Duke vs. Houston odds
Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the Final Four.
💸 Duke vs. Houston moneyline
- Duke best odds: -210 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 67.74%
- Houston best odds: +188 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 34.72%
The opening lines from our best sports betting sites don't appear like they'll see much movement, with Duke being the obvious favorite and the public proving throughout the NCAA Tournament that they love the Blue Devils. If anything, the moneyline odds will shift slightly further in Duke's direction, so if you're a Houston backer, it might be worth waiting to see if you can get odds closer to +200.
📈 Duke vs. Houston spread
- Duke best odds: -4.5 (-108 via BetRivers) | Implied probability: 51.92%
- Houston best odds: +4.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 51.22%
These are the top two rated teams by KenPom and EvanMiya, so it might seem strange that Duke opened as such a clear favorite. But this is just the fourth time this season that the Blue Devils are favored by fewer than 5.5 points, and they're 25-13 ATS on the season. Don't expect this line to move too much with the public loving Duke - they have 40.5% of the national championship handle at BetMGM.
⚖️ Duke vs. Houston Over/Under
- Over best odds: 136.5 (-110 via Caesars) | Implied probability: 52.38%
- Under best odds: 136.5 (-108 via BetRivers) | Implied probability: 51.92%
While Duke does have the best offense in the country thanks to Flagg, Knueppel, and Proctor, the Blue Devils defense has been equally as strong. With the way Duke matches up with Houston, and the Cougars slow pace and defensive dominance, this could be Duke's lowest scoring game of the tournament. Still, I expect the Over/Under to climb by a point or two, with the Blue Devils being 3-1 betting the Over in the NCAA Tournament.
🖥️ AI score prediction: Duke 72, Houston 68
- Duke has demonstrated dominance throughout the tournament and is led by freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, who is projected to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft
- The Cougars are known for their tenacious defense and efficient offense under the guidance of head coach Kelvin Sampson
- Considering Duke's explosive offense, led by Flagg, and Houston's stout defense, the Blue Devils are projected to win a tightly contested game, with both teams showcasing their strengths
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Houston covering the spread (+4.5) and a total of Over 136.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.
🩹 Duke vs. Houston injuries to watch
📺 How to watch Duke vs. Houston: NCAA Tournament Final Four
📅 Date: Saturday, April 5
🕗 Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
| March Madness odds | March Madness MVP odds |
| Women's March Madness odds | March Madness MVP predictions |
| Final Four odds | March Madness prop bets |
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