Best March Madness Survivor Pool Picks Today: Ranking Every NCAA Tournament Team on Day 6
The Sweet 16 got off to a hot start last night that had me sweating out my Texas Tech survivor pool pick with the Red Raiders needing to orchestrate an all-time comeback to knock off Arkansas and advance to the Elite Eight.
Hopefully, my March Madness survivor pool picks today won't be quite as stressful; in fact, I'm taking my safest pick tonight instead of the best pick. We're too deep into survivor pools to be afraid to back March Madness odds favorites with enticing matchups.
👉 Want to win your March Madness survivor pool? We broke down the survivor pool basics and offered our best survivor pool tips & strategy.
🎯 Best March Madness survivor pool picks today: NCAA Tournament Day 6
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston (1) | vs. Purdue (4) |
| 2 | Tennessee (2) | vs. Kentucky (3) |
| 3 | Auburn (1) | vs. Michigan (5) |
| 4 | Michigan State (2) | vs. Ole Miss (6) |
| 5 | Ole Miss (6) | vs. Michigan State (2) |
| 6 | Kentucky (3) | vs. Tennessee (2) |
| 7 | Michigan (5) | vs. Auburn (1) |
| 8 | Purdue (4) | vs. Houston (1) |
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness Sweet 16 predictions and stay up to date with the March Madness Sweet 16 odds and schedule.
✅ Best survivor pool pick today: Tennessee
While Tennessee is definitely the best pick today when thinking about the bigger picture, the Volunteers certainly come with some serious risk. Kentucky has already beaten Rick Barnes' team twice this season, shutting down Vols top scorer Chaz Lanier in both outings - he put up 25 total points while shooting 8-for-27 in those games.
However, Lanier has been on fire in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 24.5 PPG and shooting 47.2% from the floor and 55.6% from behind the arc. I don't see a Kentucky defense that's just 46th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, shutting down one of the nation's top scorers again.
And the Vols have arguably the second-best defense in the country with SEC Defensive Player of the Year Zakai Zeigler and rim protector Felix Okpara set to help slow Mark Pope's offense. But even though I think Tennessee is strategically the best pick to make, I think I'd go with a safer pick today just to survive and advance.
📊 Tennessee's odds to beat Kentucky: -196 via Caesars | Implied probability: 66.22%
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🛡️ Safest survivor pool pick today: Houston
There's no team I'm more confident in tonight than Houston. The Cougars have been playing some of the best basketball in the country over the last two months, and I think Duke is the only team better than Kelvin Sampson's right now.
It helps my confidence that Purdue is the team I least trust to pull an upset. Even with Big Ten Player of the Year Braden Smith, the Boilermakers really struggled down the stretch of the regular season and into the conference tournament, with a 3-6 record from Feb. 11 to March 14. Matt Painter's team has been lucky to play a No. 13 seed and a No. 12 seed in March Madness thus far.
Meanwhile, Houston has the best defense in the country and should contain Smith with a combo of Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp, and Terrance Arceneaux while bigs JoJo Tugler and J'Wan Roberts can handle Trey Kaufman-Renn. Plus, Purdue has the worst defense of any team left in March Madness, and L.J. Cryer should be able to cook.
I feel less bad about taking Houston in the Sweet 16, knowing the Cougars will have to play Duke in the Final Four.
📊 Houston's odds to beat Purdue: -375 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 78.95%
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⚠️ Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Ole Miss
To be honest, I'm terrified of touching the Ole Miss vs. Michigan State game because I think the Spartans are the best candidate to be upset today. At the same time, the Rebels have been one of the most sporadic teams in the SEC this season and recommending taking them this deep into a survivor pool feels like malpractice.
If you were to take Ole Miss, though, the shape you would be in going into the Elite Eight would be incredible. And with the Spartans' shooting woes from behind the arc this season - 337th in 3-pointers per game (6.0), 326th in 3-point percentage (31%) - they could have a tough time scoring against a Chris Beard defense that's 21st in adjusted efficiency and allowed the fourth-fewest 2-pointers per game in SEC play (17.1).
An Ole Miss upset will come down to Sean Pedulla continuing to put on a show in March - he's averaging 20 PPG, 6.5 APG, and shooting 41.7% from deep in the tournament - and keeping Jase Richardson at bay like New Mexico did. It's too risky, but I think Ole Miss can beat Mr. March.
📊 Ole Miss's odds to beat Michigan State: +150 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 40%
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🚫 Popular March Madness survivor pool picks to avoid today
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auburn (1) | vs. Michigan (5) |
| 2 | Michigan State (2) | vs. Ole Miss (6) |
| 3 | Purdue (4) | vs. Houston (1) |
| 4 | Kentucky (3) | vs. Tennessee (2) |
| 5 | Michigan (5) | vs. Auburn (1) |
❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Auburn
Will Auburn lose tonight? Probably not. It's reasonable to expect Johni Broome to start playing like the guy who was giving Cooper Flagg competition in the Wooden Award odds race. Still, Creighton and big man Ryan Kalkbrenner gave the Tigers a scare and the Wolverines have two 7-footers leading their charger in Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin.
Those two make Michigan a difficult matchup for most teams, so I wouldn't be surprised if Auburn wasn't looking its best by halftime. But an upset isn't why I'd avoid taking the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament tonight, it's because they're going to be the best pick for the Elite Eight.
Assuming Auburn beats Michigan, the Tigers will either take on an Ole Miss team they've already beaten three times this year or a Spartans team that lacks the offense to keep up with Broome and all the talented shooters around him. Save Bruce Pearl's team for Sunday.
📊 Auburn's odds to beat Michigan: -420 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 80.77%
⛔ Other survivor pool picks to avoid today
- While the Spartans are taking on the worst seed of any team playing today, I don't trust this Michigan State offense enough if Pedulla keeps playing at the level he is for the Rebels
- This will probably jinx it, but I think Purdue is going to get destroyed by Houston in the late game and allow everyone to go to sleep a little earlier than they got to last night ... the Boilermakers just don't have the depth or defense to win
- It's hard to gauge this Kentucky team, especially with Jaxson Robinson out, and I have a hard time seeing the Wildcats quiet Lanier again to beat one of the best teams in the country for a third straight time
- The guard play of Michigan remains a major flaw and for as good as Dusty May's two bigs are, I don't think they'll be able to do enough against one of the best teams in the country to pull off an upset.
🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
- Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction
- Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan prediction
- Houston vs. Purdue prediction
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