Best March Madness Survivor Pool Picks Today: Ranking Every NCAA Tournament Team on Day 7
The Sweet 16 didn't disappoint with my favorite survivor pool picks on each day just hanging on by the skin of their teeth - Texas Tech needed the second-largest comeback in March Madness history, and Houston took the lead on Purdue with 0.8 seconds remaining.
It won't get any easier, given the chalkiness of this NCAA Tournament, which has given us a loaded Elite Eight and left me with no obvious choices for my March Madness survivor pool picks today.
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🎯 Best March Madness survivor pool picks today: NCAA Tournament Day 7
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida (1) | vs. Texas Tech (3) |
| 2 | Duke (1) | vs. Alabama (2) |
| 3 | Texas Tech (3) | vs. Florida (1) |
| 4 | Alabama (2) | vs. Duke (1) |
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✅ Best survivor pool pick today: Florida
The health of Alex Condon remains a concern heading into Florida's game against Texas Tech, but even if the Australian big man is limited, the Gators have too much talent to fall to the Red Raiders. No team has been as lucky as Tech, which has managed to make the Elite Eight by playing only double-digit seeds ... and struggling against all three.
While the Red Raiders' comeback against Arkansas was incredible, that was a No. 10 seed and a program that finished ninth in the SEC in the regular season. Now they're playing the SEC tournament champs and a team with the second-shortest March Madness odds. Florida has way too much offensive talent for Grant McCasland's team.
The Gators are No. 2 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and Tech has the worst defense of any team in the Elite Eight (39th in adjusted efficiency). Led by Walter Clayton Jr. - arguably the most talented offensive player in March Madness not named Cooper Flagg - the Gators are built to win this potentially high-scoring game.
📊 Florida's odds to beat Texas Tech: -295 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 74.68%
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🛡️ Safest survivor pool pick today: Duke
Although Florida has the more favorable matchup against a No. 3 seed in Texas Tech, Duke is safer simply because the Blue Devils are the only team remaining that hasn't really struggled. Even after letting Arizona back into its win late in the Sweet 16 behind the play of Caleb Love, it never felt like Duke was really going to let the game get away from it.
This is the most talented team in the country, and it's playing the best basketball in the country, thanks to Flagg. The likely Wooden Award odds winner had an all-time performance against the Wildcats and should be able to put on a show against an Alabama team that turns every game into a track meet.
The Crimson Tide's 3-point heavy offense was on full display against an uninspiring BYU defense, but now it's running into the No. 5 defense in adjusted efficiency. There's almost no way Mark Sears has a game like he did against the Cougars when he takes on the Blue Devils tonight, and he'll need to for this upset to happen.
However, thinking ahead to the final weekend of March Madness, you're going to need to have Duke available to you for your survivor pool picks. Save the Blue Devils, take the Gators.
📊 Duke's odds to beat Alabama: -275 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 73.33%
⚠️ Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Texas Tech
If you believe in magic and are trying to conserve Duke for the Final Four/championship game, or if you're a masochist, you could take Texas Tech here. The Red Raiders are technically the Cinderella of the Elite Eight as the only non-top-two seed to be alive this deep into the tournament.
I want to make it clear that I do not recommend taking them, but there is a path to an upset over Florida if you squint. Texas Tech has plenty of momentum (if you believe that matters) heading into today after its comeback against Arkansas, and Condon being potentially limited for Florida should help All-American JT Toppin own the paint.
At the same time, Texas Tech got here by beating a No. 14 seed, a No. 13 seed, and a No. 10 seed and only outscored them 244-219. If Tech shoots 25% from behind the arc against Florida like it did against Arkansas, then it has no shot. And unless Chance McMillian plays, I do not believe in magic.
📊 Texas Tech's odds to beat Florida: +260 via bet365 | Implied probability: 27.78%
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🚫 Popular March Madness survivor pool picks to avoid today
| Ranking | Team (seed) | Matchup (seed) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama (2) | vs. Duke (1) |
| 2 | Texas Tech (3) | vs. Florida (1) |
| 3 | Duke (1) | vs. Alabama (2) |
| 4 | Florida (1) | vs. Texas Tech (3) |
❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Alabama
What Alabama did to BYU looked like something a Nick Saban-coached Crimson Tide team would do to a Sun Belt team on a Saturday in the fall. Nate Oats's 3-point leaning attack just blew the Cougars' defense away as the Tide hit an inexplicable 25 shots from behind the arc, a March Madness record.
The odds of Bama having three players hit five-plus 3-pointers against Duke are slimmer than a team passing on Flagg with the No. 1 pick to take one of the Rutgers freshmen. It ain't happening, and I don't know if the Tide can win if it doesn't happen because there's no way this defense can slow the NBA draft odds favorite, plus Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor.
This is the one team that might be better in a track meet than Alabama - Duke is No. 1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency - and it's not like the Tide are built to move away from their run-and-gun style. Betting against Duke just doesn't seem worth it.
📊 Alabama's odds to beat Duke: +260 via bet365 | Implied probability: 27.68%
⛔ Other survivor pool picks to avoid today
- We haven't seen Texas Tech beat anyone of merit in the NCAA Tournament and it's struggled to pull away from double-digit seeds, so there's no reason to be confident they can take down a No. 1 seed
- The only argument for not picking Duke today is that you should be saving it for the final weekend of March Madness, with it likely being the safest Final Four pick and the favorite to win it all
- Obviously Florida is my pick, but playing devil's advocate, the reason to second guess me would be the health of Condon and if McMillian somehow returns for Tech
🆚 Elite Eight game predictions
- Florida vs. Texas Tech prediction
- Duke vs. Alabama prediction
- Houston vs. Tennessee prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan State prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan State player props
- Auburn vs. Michigan State parlay
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