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March Madness Trends Today: Best ATS & ML Tips for Friday

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: March 28, 2025 2:03 PM EDT • 4 min 22 sec read.

March Madness Sweet 16 Trends Today: Friday's Best ATS & ML Tips for NCAA Tournament
Pictured: Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson talks to guard Kordelius Jefferson (0) in the NCAA Tournament. Photo by Kirby Lee via Imagn Images.

Four tickets have already been punched to the Elite Eight, with the final four places up for grabs tonight. Alabama, Duke, Florida, and Texas Tech advanced further in the NCAA Tournament as moneyline favorites went 4-0 on the first day. Who will join them in the next round?

Our March Madness trends today highlight the best tips against the spread (ATS) and on the moneyline (ML) for the second half of the Sweet 16 slate. The action gets underway tonight at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS) from State Farm Arena in Atlanta.

🗓️ Today's NCAA Tournament schedule

  • No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS), South Region
  • No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Kentucky, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV), Midwest Region
  • No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS), South Region
  • No. 1 Houston No. 4 Purdue, 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV), Midwest Region

👉 Want to bet on the Sweet 16? Check out the latest March Madness Sweet 16 odds & full schedule.

📊 Best March Madness Sweet 16 trends today

🏀 Michigan State vs. Ole Miss trends: Spartans stay hot

Michigan State (29-6) is a 3.5-point favorite over the tournament's lowest remaining seed, Ole Miss (24-11), at our best sports betting sites. The Spartans and Rebels both come into the Sweet 16 showdown with 2-0 records against the spread, but the South Region's second seed has been more consistent this season.

Tom Izzo's group boasts one of the best ATS records in the country at 24-10-1, compared to Ole Miss, which has needed the NCAA Tournament to get over .500 in that department (18-16-1). Florida (27-10) is the only team that can claim a better cover rate than Michigan State, which is a popular pick with the points:

The Spartans have rewarded moneyline bettors in 29 of their last 35 showings, as well. All of the signs and trends point toward a statement Michigan State victory, and it's hard to disagree. Bettors certainly haven't, with over 70% backing the Spartans on both the moneyline and spread.

👉 For more analysis & latest odds, check out our Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction.

🏀 Tennessee vs. Kentucky trends: Will the Wildcats win?

BetMGM oddsmakers seem to believe Tennessee (29-7) will exercise its demons against Kentucky (24-11), with the Volunteers listed as 4.5-point favorites. Rick Barnes' men have met the Wildcats twice already this season, so like Arizona and Duke, they're no strangers ahead of their Sweet 16 showdown.

The two teams were middle-of-the-road ATS teams in the SEC with respective records of 19-17 and 18-17. However, Kentucky is 2-0 both in the NCAA Tournament and against Tennessee this year.

Despite being underdogs in both meetings, the Wildcats won by a combined 16 points across the two games. If there's a team to buck the trend of favorites being unbeaten ATS in the Sweet 16, bettors believe it'll be Kentucky, which is receiving 61% of spread picks at our best sports betting apps.

The public is proceeding with caution in this chalky March Madness, though. Tennessee is still the go-to straight-up selection (61%) after cashing the moneyline at an 80% clip over its last 10.

👉 For more analysis & latest odds, check out our Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction.

🏀 Auburn vs. Michigan trends: Trouble for the Tigers

Auburn (30-5) is the Sweet 16's joint-biggest favorite that is yet to play. The Tigers are 8.5-point betting favorites over Michigan (27-9) as the 1-seed squares off against the 5-seed in the South Region.

While the Wolverines have a mediocre against-the-spread record (18-18), they have covered in each of their last five outings, all of which came in the postseason. Many worried about Michigan coming into the NCAA Tournament, given it lost its last three in the regular season. However, Dusty May's men have now won their last five games outright.

The Wolverines have been kind to moneyline bettors, and they've repaid their faith by backing Michigan to topple the tournament's top seed in tonight's Sweet 16 showdown:

Auburn hasn't been particularly better in the covers department, with a mediocre 1-1 record thus far in the tournament. The Tigers have only covered the spread 18 times across 35 games played (52.9% cover rate).

The public thinks it knows how this game will play out.

Although Michigan is a popular underdog pick, Bruce Pearl's team is still getting an overwhelming majority of support via the moneyline (82%). After all, Auburn has just lost five games all season. However, Michigan remains the trendy ATS pick, with 66% of bettors at our best sportsbooks picking the Wolverines to cover.

👉 For more analysis & latest odds, check out our Auburn vs. Michigan prediction.

🏀 Houston vs. Purdue trends: Coogs keep rolling

Houston (32-4) joins the aforementioned Auburn Tigers as the largest favorites on today's slate. The Cougars are 8.5-point favorites over Purdue (24-11) at our best live betting sites.

Large favorites have found success around every corner in this chalky NCAA Tournament:

This record improved to 28-2 SU and 20-10 ATS after Duke and Florida played on Thursday night. Now, Houston - which is 19-16-1 ATS - will look to build on its fellow No. 1 seeds' success while punching a ticket to the Elite Eight. The Cougars are public darlings (54% of spread bets, 90% of moneyline bets) to do so, as well.

Houston is riding a 15-game streak of cashing the moneyline for bettors. The Cougars are 11-6-1 ATS on the same rest as their opponent and with the Boilermakers boasting an unimpressive 54.3% cover rate, the Midwest Region's top seed should roll.

👉 For more analysis & latest odds, check out our Houston vs. Purdue prediction.

🏀 Best March Madness odds, predictions & expert picks today

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.