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March Madness Sweet 16 Trends Today: How to Bet Thursday's NCAA Tournament Schedule

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: March 27, 2025 4:17 PM EDT • 4 min 50 sec read.

Pictured: Auburn Tigers guard Denver Jones (2) and forward Johni Broome (4) celebrate after a play during the NCAA Tournament. Photo by Jordan Prather via Imagn Images.

The story of March Madness in 2025 has been, well, the lack of madness. The NCAA Tournament has largely seen chalk favorites advance, as evidenced by seven of the top eight national seeds reaching the Sweet 16.

Our March Madness trends today highlight the best tips against the spread (ATS) and on the moneyline (ML) for the first half of the Sweet 16 slate. The action gets underway tonight at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS) from the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.

Our Rob Paul ensures you make the right moneyline selections with his March Madness survivor pool picks for today.

🗓️ Today's NCAA Tournament schedule

  • No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS), East Region
  • No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV), West Region
  • No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS), East Region
  • No. 3 Texas Tech No. 10 Arkansas, 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV), West Region

👉 Want to bet on the Sweet 16? Check out the latest March Madness Sweet 16 odds & full schedule.

📊 Best March Madness Sweet 16 trends today

🏀 Alabama vs. BYU trends: Cougars consistently cover

Alabama (27-8) comes into this game as a 4.5-point favorite over BYU (26-9) at our best sports betting sites. While the Crimson Tide have tallied one more win this season, the Cougars are better against the spread. Kevin Young's group led the Big 12 with a 22-13 ATS record, including a perfect 2-0 mark during March Madness.

While BYU is a popular mainstream pick, betting trends and data have revealed the Cougars are actually a contrarian selection. BetMGM reports that 79% of all moneyline bets are on Alabama in the hours leading up to tipoff.

The Crimson Tide are 11-10-1 in games involving similar spreads, so while we wouldn't necessarily take BYU outright, there could be value in picking the Cougars to cover.

👉 For more analysis & latest odds, check out our Alabama vs. BYU prediction.

🏀 Florida vs. Maryland trends: The Gators are good

Florida (32-4) survived a near-catastrophe in the second round, which has the 1-seed on upset alert against Maryland (27-8). The Gators are still favored by 6.5 points at our best sports betting apps, but history hasn't been kind to teams that have struggled to cover early in the tournament.

Trends tell us that Todd Golden's group likely won't cut down the nets in San Antonio on April 7. However, trying to pinpoint when Florida will falter is a different story entirely. The Terrapins are a painfully average 18-16-1 ATS this season, whereas Florida led the SEC at 26-10 ATS. Bettors are hitting the favorites hard, with 70% of spread bets and 91% of moneyline picks.

Meanwhile, Maryland's mediocrity continues into the tournament, where it has covered in just one of its two outings. The Terrapins needed a buzzer-beater to beat Colorado State in the second round, the Gators are a different beast entirely - no pun intended.

Florida should be fine for at least another round as its depth and trends give it a leg up in the Sweet 16.

👉 For more analysis & latest odds, check out our Florida vs. Maryland prediction.

🏀 Duke vs. Arizona trends: Wildcats want another shot

Duke (33-3) is a 9.5-point favorite over Arizona (24-12), which is tied for the highest spread of the Sweet 16 at our best sportsbooks. Unlike many other matchups, though, the Blue Devils and Wildcats have met already this season.

Duke won the first contest convincingly, beating Arizona - who was a 2-point betting favorite - by a final score of 69-55. It was one of the Blue Devils' 24 wins against the spread this season, which topped the ACC. The Wildcats weren't as good as their aforementioned Big 12 foes with a 19-17 ATS record.

Furthermore, Jon Scheyer's team is an astonishing 18-8 ATS this season when favored by 9.5 points or more. Given that trend and the fact Duke won by 14 in the previous meeting, this should be a simple pick, no?

Arizona has actually performed well as an underdog, winning four of nine games straight-up. The Wildcats are much better now, as their win over Oregon showed, than they were back in November.

Bettors are all over Duke on both the spread (60%) and moneyline (92%). While we won't fade the public on the latter pick, there's decent value with Arizona getting nearly 10 points against the spread.

👉 For more analysis & latest odds, check out our Duke vs. Arizona prediction.

🏀 Texas Tech vs. Arkansas trends: Red Raiders should roll

Arkansas (22-13) is the belle of the ball this year as the only double-digit seed in the Sweet 16. However, with the Razorbacks facing tough competition in Texas Tech (27-8), the question on everybody's mind is "can Cinderella keep dancing?"

Our best live betting sites suggest maybe not, listing the Red Raiders as 5.5-point favorites. Bettors are backing up the Brinks trucks in bunches to bet on Arkansas regardless:

While 83% of the bets are on the Razorbacks, 65% of the handle on the moneyline is on Texas Tech. The Razorbacks are still getting 65% of the spread bets, though, despite their poor ATS record of 16-18-1.

The Red Raiders weren't much better against the spread (18-17), but stylistically, this is the toughest match Arkansas will have faced this tournament. Many aren't impressed with the resume of John Calipari's men, including our college basketball expert Isaiah Sirois:

"While John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks have a ton of momentum, their March Madness resume isn’t all that impressive. They beat a bad Kansas team that looked lost with Hunter Dickinson on the floor and a St. John’s team that couldn’t make a shot to save its life. If you’re looking for a Cinderella, this probably isn’t it."

We second this opinion as ATS records and trends won't help the Razorbacks keep up with KenPom's fifth-ranked offense in the nation.

👉 For more analysis & latest odds, check out our Texas Tech vs. Arkansas prediction.

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.