One of These 8 Teams Will Win the NCAA Tournament & Best March Madness Odds

Rob Paul

Last Updated: March 19, 2025 9:04 PM EDT • 4 min 8 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

One of These 8 Teams Will Win the NCAA Tournament & Best March Madness Odds — Pictured: Florida's Walter Clayton Jr. against Alabama. Photo by Steve Roberts via Imagn Images.

Although it may appear like any program can get hot and go on an NCAA Tournament run during March Madness, recent history says that's simply not the case.

Looking at the advanced metrics for the last 22 NCAA Tournament champions, along with the history of what seeds can actually win a title, just eight programs have a shot at being crowned the last program standing in the March Madness bracket.

One of these eight teams will win the NCAA Tournament, and they should be the focus of your March Madness predictions when figuring out how to fill out a March Madness bracket.

👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.

🏆 The criteria for being a March Madness champion

📊 March Madness odds

Off the bat, we can eliminate most of the NCAA Tournament field that has March Madness odds longer than +10000
Odds of +10000 imply just a 0.99% probability that the team will win the NCAA Tournament
Since 2006, the team with the longest NCAA Tournament odds heading into the first round to take home the March Madness title was UConn (+9500) in 2013-14
That Huskies team is an anomaly, too, with the next longest odds champ ahead of the opening round to win it all being UConn in 2010-11 (+2500)
And you guessed it the next longest-odds team to win since then was also UConn in 2022-23
So +10000 odds mean you have no shot, and odds longer than +1600 give you the slimmest of chances

🔢 March Madness seeding matters

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, just three teams seeded worse than No. 4 have won March Madness
Again, that UConn team from 2014 is an anomaly as the only March Madness champ since 1989 to be seeded worse than No. 4
That essentially eliminates every non-top-four seed from winning March Madness this season
Only one team has March Madness odds shorter than +10000 while seeded worse than No. 4
That eliminates No. 8 seed Gonzaga (+5000)

🔍 KenPom ratings of March Madness champions

Since the beginning of the KenPom era (2002), every NCAA Tournament champion has been at least top 39 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 22 in adjusted defensive efficiency
Every champion has also been at least top 15 in either adjusted offensive efficiency or adjusted defensive efficiency
Of the 18 teams that are top 22 in adjusted defensive efficiency and in the NCAA Tournament, eight of them aren't a top-four seed and don't have odds shorter than +10000
That eliminates Saint Mary's (+15000), Kansas (+11000), Michigan (+18000), Clemson (+12000), UCLA (+18000), Arkansas (+70000), New Mexico (+70000), and Louisville (+15000)
Another two of them aren't top 39 in adjusted offensive efficiency
That eliminates St. John's (+3000) and Texas A&M (+12000)
Of the 14 top four seeds that are top 39 in adjusted offensive efficiency, six aren't top 22 in adjusted defensive efficiency
That eliminates Alabama (+2200), Texas Tech (+3500), Purdue (+14000), Kentucky (+7000), Arizona (+5000), and Wisconsin (+8500)
That leaves us with just eight teams that are capable of winning March Madness this season

📖 March Madness regional previews: South | East | Midwest | West

🎱 One of these eight teams will win the NCAA Tournament

😈 Duke

March Madness odds: +320 via DraftKings
Seed: 1
Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 3rd
Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 4th

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🐊 Florida

March Madness odds: +380 via DraftKings
Seed: 1
Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 1st
Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 9th

🐯 Auburn

March Madness odds: +550 via FanDuel
Seed: 1
Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 2nd
Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 12th

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🛑 Houston

March Madness odds: +650 via BetRivers
Seed: 1
Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 10th
Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 2nd

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🍊 Tennessee

March Madness odds: +2200 via BetRivers
Seed: 2
Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 18th
Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 3rd

⚔️ Michigan State

March Madness odds: +3300 via FanDuel
Seed: 2
Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 27th
Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 5th

🌪️ Iowa State

March Madness odds: +4500 via DraftKings
Seed: 3
Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 21st
Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 10th

🐢 Maryland

March Madness odds: +6500 via FanDuel
Seed: 4
Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 28th
Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 6th

👉 Want more upset picks? Check out our best March Madness upset predictions and our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.

📅 March Madness key dates

Selection Sunday: ~~March 16~~
First Four: ~~March 18-19~~
First round: March 20-21
Second round: March 22-23
Sweet 16: March 27-28
Elite Eight: March 29-30
Final Four: Saturday, April 5
National championship game: Monday, April 7

🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

March Madness odds	March Madness MVP odds
Women's March Madness odds	March Madness MVP predictions
Final Four odds	March Madness prop bets

🏀 Best March Madness betting sites

Looking to bet on the NCAA Tournament? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

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Written By:
Rob Paul

Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.