Super Bowl Odds After Raiders, Steelers, Rams, Seahawks, Commanders Make Big Moves
The NFL offseason didn't take long to kick into high gear.
A few seismic moves have already transformed the league's landscape heading into the 2025 campaign, with the Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Commanders, and Los Angeles Rams making a splash before unofficial free agency starts on Monday, March 10.
So, what are the latest moves? And how has the shuffling impacted the 2026 Super Bowl odds entering the unofficial start of free agency at our best NFL betting sites?
How have recent offseason moves impacted 2026 Super Bowl odds?
Commanders Super Bowl odds (+2200)
The Washington Commanders were the first team to make a splash in the offseason after acquiring Deebo Samuel from the San Francisco 49ers.
The Commanders' Super Bowl odds moved from +2200 to +1900 at DraftKings right after the deal, and that's where their price remains now. Washington sent a fifth-round pick to San Francisco for the 29-year-old receiver, whose productivity has been decreasing since his career-best 1,405 receiving yards in 2021. Injuries have also hampered his progress recently.
But the Commanders won't be overly concerned, especially considering he'll be teaming up with Offensive Rookie of the Year odds winner Jayden Daniels and second-team All-Pro Terry McLaurin. Securing Samuel's services is a massive upgrade for the Commanders, and they'll reap the benefits in the forthcoming season.
Commanders best Super Bowl odds: +2200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 4.35%
Commanders handle: 7.8%
Commanders ticket: 6.9%
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Rams Super Bowl odds (+2600)
Davante Adams is a Los Angeles Ram, and he arrived just in time to chat with Cooper Kupp before he likely departs stage left. At least, that's the most probable outcome, according to the Cooper Kupp next team odds.
The Rams didn't waste any time getting a contingency in place if and when Kupp departs. Adams, 32, is a year older than Kupp. He'll be inking a two-year, $46 million deal with the Rams, and the veteran will form a formidable trio with Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford. I wonder whether Adams' impact in La La Land will measure up to Kupp's production.
We won't be waiting long to find out. The Rams' Super Bowl odds didn't shift across our best sportsbooks after the news of the Adams deal broke.
Rams best Super Bowl odds: +2600 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 3.70%
Rams handle: 1.7%
Rams ticket: 1.6%
Steelers Super Bowl odds (+5500)
Mike Tomlin has answered the call of countless Pittsburgh Steelers fans to sign an elite receiver. There are few better than DK Metcalf, who's now a Steeler after being traded from Seattle for a 2025 second-round pick.
The Steelers' Super Bowl odds shifted considerably after the news broke, moving from +7000 to +5500 at DraftKings. While that's only an implied probability improvement of 1.41% to 1.79%, it will fill Terrible Towel wavers with untold optimism.
The rumor mill is also swirling regarding Pittsburgh's quarterback room, with the Steelers expected to make a make a play for the Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold once free agency begins, according to The Athletic's Dianna Russini.
If that comes to fruition, expect the Steelers' odds to shorten considerably. In the meantime, Steelers fans will be jumping for joy knowing one of the world's best, who's only 27 years old, is joining their ranks.
Steelers best Super Bowl odds: +5500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.79%
Steelers handle: 3.2%
Steelers ticket: 2.9%
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Seahawks Super Bowl odds (+6600)
I'd love to see a snapshot of Steelers fans and Seahawks fans side by side today. Talk about opposite emotional states.
The Seahawks have offloaded starting quarterback Geno Smith and Metcalf in the last few days. While the moves might be fruitful long term, I imagine most Seattle fans are yelling expletives as they try to come to terms with a chaotic and debilitating week.
The Seahawks received a third-round pick (92nd overall) from the Raiders for the 34-year-old signal-caller and a 2025 second-round pick for Metcalf.
The Seahawks Super Bowl odds (+6600) remain unchanged at BetMGM after news of the Metcalf trade. However, we should see some movement soon, and it won't be good for Seattle or its fans.
Seahawks best Super Bowl odds: +6600 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 1.49%
Seahawks handle: 0.6%
Seahawks ticket: 0.8%
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Raiders Super Bowl odds (+12500)
Can Smith be the Sin City savior? No, probably not.
While the Raiders' Super Bowl odds remain among the 10 worst, Smith represents a massive upgrade on last season's quarterbacks, who could have been mistaken for being the lead characters in "Dumb and Dumberer."
Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew didn't give the Raiders a chance to win every week.
The upgrade is clearly thrilling for consistent Defensive Player of the Year odds contender Maxx Crosby:
Smith posted his best year in terms of passing yardage last year, tossing for 4,320 yards. He was also asked to launch the ball more while attempting 578 passes, six more than his previous most in 2022.
Let's see what other moves new Raiders head coach Pete Carroll can pull off in the leadup to the start of the regular season, because Smith alone isn't enough to propel the Raiders to glory.
Raiders best Super Bowl odds: +12500 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 0.79%
Raiders handle: 1.7%
Raiders ticket: 2.2%
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