Alex Ovechkin Goals Record Odds & Predictions: When and How Will Ovi Break Gretzky's Mark?

Alex Ovechkin is just four goals away from making NHL history as we analyze when to expect the all-time goals record-setting moment, how it will happen, and which netminder it will come against.

Gary Pearson

Last updated: April 2, 2025 9:52 AM EDT • 6 min read

Alex Ovechkin Goals Record Odds & Predictions: When and How Will Ovi Break Gretzky's Mark? — Pictured: Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin celebrates his goal against the Winnipeg Jets. Photo by James Carey Lauder via Imagn Images

Like Arthur in the "Sword in the Stone," Alex Ovechkin will soon be crowned king. The Great 8 has 891 career NHL goals, four shy of dethroning Wayne Gretzky and eclipsing a record many thought would never be broken.

With anticipation building and the crescendo nearing on the most riveting and compelling NHL storyline in a generation, we analyze when and how the Great 8 will break the record in our Ovechkin goals record odds and predictions.

📊 Will Alex Ovechkin break the NHL's all-time goals record this season?

Alex Ovechkin goals record odds via FanDuel as of Wednesday, April 2.

Outcome	Odds	Implied probability	Profit on $10 bet
Yes	-260	72.22%	$3.85
No	+195	33.90%	$19.50

Ovechkin's odds of breaking Gretzky's all-time goals record of 894 shortened from -170 to -260 after he tapped home his 891st goal in Boston on Tuesday. It happened to be the 29th time he scored against the Bruins in his illustrious, soon-to-be record-setting career.

All of our best sports betting sites offer odds on Ovi's pursuit of the NHL's goals record.

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🥅 Why Ovechkin will break the goals record this season

The 72.22% implied probability reflects Ovechkin's unassuming yet unmistakable swagger. He's on pace to score 42 goals this season, which would bring his total to 895. While there isn't much wiggle room, there are various factors contributing to the likelihood of the Caps' captain making history in the remaining eight games:

🏒 Ovi has 38 goals in 58 games, scoring at a .66 goals-per-game clip. He needs just a goal every two games (.50 goals per game) to break the record this season
🏒 Six of the Caps' remaining eight games are against non-playoff teams, two of which are versus collectives more focused on forthcoming tee times (Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks)
🏒 Five games are on the road, where Ovi has a 0.74 goals-per-game clip. Compare that to his inferior 0.58 goals-per-game mark at home, where he will play just three times
🏒 Seven games are against Metropolitan Division opponents, who Ovechkin has scored 10 goals against in 14 games this season. That's a .71 goals-per-game clip, far better than his 0.50 rate versus Atlantic Division opponents.

Intangible reasons Ovechkin will break the goals record this season

The intangible reasons can be as influential, if not more so. His teammates are hellbent on ensuring their captain breaks the record, and so is head coach - and Jack Adams Award odds favorite - Spencer Carbery.

While they won't admit it, don't be surprised to see the collective deferring to Ovechkin at a disproportionately high rate, dishing the puck to him instead of firing on goal. It could also mean the world of difference entering the postseason.

A happy-go-lucky, jubilant, and stress-free Ovechkin is more likely to excel in the playoffs than one bogged down by the prospect of waiting until next season to get the job done.

Carbery will be more inclined to put Ovi on the ice in empty-net situations and for longer durations. The Caps, who are among the Stanley Cup odds favorites, have all but secured the top seed in the Eastern Conference, providing more wiggle room where those tactics are concerned.

Who will Ovechkin break the goals record against this season?

Outcome	Odds	Profit on $10 bet
Blue Jackets (April 12 and 13)	+230	$23
Islanders (April 6 and 15)	+400	$40
Hurricanes (April 2 and 10)	+700	$70
Penguins (April 17)	+800	$80
Blackhawks (April 4)	+3000	$300

There are six dates to choose from, assuming he doesn't score four goals in the next two games against the Carolina Hurricanes and Chicago Blackhawks. I don't think he'll score against Carolina tonight, which I covered in our Capitals vs. Hurricanes prediction.

However, I expect Ovi to score a goal at home against the Blackhawks on Friday, leaving him three shy of breaking the record. The Great 8 has netted 15 goals in 25 career games against Chicago.

I predict Ovechkin will break Gretzky's record at home against the Blue Jackets in the third-last game of the season.

April 2 @ Hurricanes

Will Ovechkin score? No
Will Ovechkin break the record? No

April 4 vs. Blackhawks

Will Ovechkin score? Yes (Goal 892)
Will Ovechkin break the record? No

April 6 @ Islanders

Will Ovechkin score? No
Will Ovechkin break the record? No

April 10 vs. Hurricanes

Will Ovechkin score? Yes (Goal 893)
Will Ovechkin break the record? No

April 12 @ Blue Jackets

Will Ovechkin score? Yes (Goal 894)
Will Ovechkin break the record? No

April 13 vs. Blue Jackets

Will Ovechkin score? Yes (Record-breaking goal 895)
Will Ovechkin break the record? Yes

April 15 @ Islanders

Will Ovechkin score? No (Rested for the playoffs)

April 17 @ Penguins

Will Ovechkin score? No (Rested for the playoffs)

How will Ovechkin break the goals record this season?

Odds via FanDuel on April 2.

Method	Odds	Implied probability	Profit on $10 bet
Even strength goal	-220	68.75%	$4.55
Power play goal	+165	37.74%	$16.50
Shorthanded goal	+5000	1.96%	$500

I predict Ovechkin will score the record-breaking at home on April 13 against the Blue Jackets.

And I'm backing him to score the iconic goal on the power play. The Blue Jackets have the 24th-ranked penalty kill (75.8%) and the 25th-ranked unit on the road (74.8%). With more time and space, the Caps will feed Ovi the puck at every possible opportunity.

I love the +165 odds at FanDuel associated with the record-breaking goal coming via the man advantage, and a winning $10 bet will profit $16.50. Our Alex Ovechkin goals record odds also detail which goaltender Ovi's 895th goal will come against. Based on my prediction, you can lock in Elvis Merzlikins at +900, which would pay a profit of $90 on a $10 wager.

Who will get an assist on Ovechkin's record-breaking goal?

Player	Odds (via DraftKings)	Implied probability	Profit ($10 bet)
Dylan Strome	+150	40%	$15
Tom Wilson	+250	28.57%	$25
Pierre-Luc Dubois	+350	22.22%	$35
John Carlson	+400	20%	$40
Aliaksei Protas	+450	18.18%	$45
Ryan Leonard	+650	13.33%	$65
Jakob Chychrun	+650	13.33%	$65
Connor McMichael	+1000	9.09%	$100

Dylan Strome has the most assists on Ovechkin's goals this season, with helpers on 17 of 37 markers. Strome leads the Caps in points, assists, and power-play points. He plays on the top power-play unit with Ovi and notches assists at a .65 per-game rate.

He's my choice to register a helper on the most important goal in the NHL's history (at least where the regular season is concerned), and you'll earn a profit of $15 on a winning $10 bet.

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❓ Alex Ovechkin goals record FAQs

How close is Alex Ovechkin to breaking the goals record?

Ovechkin has scored 891 regular-season NHL goals, leaving him four shy of breaking the all-time record.

Who is the NHL's all-time goal scoring leader?

Wayne Gretzky owns the NHL's goal scoring record with 894 career regular-season tallies.

What are the odds Alex Ovechkin will break the goal scoring record this season?

FanDuel has Ovechkin listed at -164 to pass Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record in 2025, carrying an implied probability of 62.12%.

How many goals does Alex Ovechkin score per season?

Entering the 2024-25 season, Ovechkin averaged nearly 45 goals per season over his first 19 NHL campaigns.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.

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