Eurovision Odds & Favorites 2025: Sweden Still Leads Heading Into Final
The final field is set for the conclusion of the 2025 Eurovision Song Contest, and there are few surprises among both the competition leaders thus far and in the Eurovision odds from one of our best sports betting sites.
Sweden remains far out in front after growing its lead following the two semifinal rounds, with Austria its main and perhaps only true challenger by the odds. However, France rose up since the semifinals, and it leads the long-shot candidates.
The grand final begins from Basel, Switzerland at 3 p.m. ET tomorrow.
📊 Eurovision odds 2025
The Eurovision chances to win the song contest in 2025 are from Kalshi.
| Country | Probability (via Kalshi) |
|---|---|
| Sweden | 51% |
| Austria | 21% |
| France | 10% |
| Finland | 4% |
| Netherlands | 4% |
| Estonia | 3% |
| Israel | 3% |
| Albania | 2% |
| Germany | 2% |
| Italy | 1% |
Here are some observations following the semifinals:
- Though a clear two-country race remains, Sweden has been pulling away from its main challenger Austria up top, with the Swedes' percentage chance of winning moving from 44% to 51% once the semifinals concluded
- Austria has dropped back slightly too as the grand final looms, shifting from 24% to 21%
- France is the only other nation remotely within reach of Austria, and its chances shuffled from 6% to 10% following the semifinal
- Of the dark-horse candidates getting a chance of 4% or below, the Netherlands and Israel have enjoyed the most past success during Eurovision, winning the competition five and four times, respectively
🥇 Eurovision odds favorite
🇸🇪 Sweden Eurovision odds (51%)
Sweden is just one year removed from winning Europe's song contest. That's when Loreen took home the honor for her country with "Tattoo."
Now KAJ is representing the Swedes with the stage-thumping banger "Bara Bada Bastu," which translates to "just sauna."
Sweden is a Eurovision powerhouse and is tied with Ireland for the most wins (seven) in the competition's history, which has been going on since 1956. But unlike Ireland, the Swedes' success has been more recent, with three of the nation's triumphs coming since 2012.
Austria could still pose a threat to Sweden as the only other nation somewhat within reach. However, Austria's percentage chance fell slightly after the semifinals, though that came after a fast rise from 5% to around 26% heading into the final stages of the competition.
Best odds: 51% via Kalshi
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👀 Eurovision country to watch
🇳🇱 Netherlands Eurovision odds (4%)
Although there are some dominant countries in Eurovision, like Sweden and France, long shots frequently ascend the ranks, too. We only need to glance back to last year when Switzerland was getting +700 odds (12.50% probability) entering the final after the field had been reduced, and Nemo's hit "The Code" still eventually prevailed.
This year, the Netherlands is still holding on at the back half of the field ahead of the grand final while leading the nations getting a chance of 4% or lower. And similar to Sweden, the Netherlands boasts an established history of success at this event after winning it five times, with the last in 2019.
Best odds: 4% via Kalshi
📜 Recent Eurovision winners
| Year | Country | Artist | Song |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Switzerland | Nemo | The Code |
| 2023 | Sweden | Loreen | Tattoo |
| 2022 | Ukraine | Kalush Orchestra | Stefania |
| 2021 | Italy | Maneskin | Zitti E Buoni |
| 2019 | Netherlands | Duncan Laurence | Arcade |
| 2018 | Israel | Toy | Netta |
| 2017 | Portugal | Salvador Sobral | Amar Pelos Dois |
| 2016 | Ukraine | Jamala | 1944 |
| 2015 | Sweden | Mans Zelmerlow | Heroes |
| 2014 | Austria | Conchita Wurst | Rise Like a Phoenix |
*Eurovision wasn't held during 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic
❓Eurovision odds FAQ
What is Eurovision?
Eurovision is an international song contest in which each participating country submits an original song. It's been running since 1956.
This year, 37 countries submitted entries, with 31 moving on to the semifinals.
Which country is the favorite to win Eurovision this year?
Sweden remains the favorite heading into the final while getting a 51% chance through Kalshi, with Austria second at 21%.
Which country won Eurovision last year?
Switzerland won Eurovision last year with "The Code" by Nemo. It was a significant upset, as the country entered the final round getting odds as long as +700 (an implied probability of 12.50%), while Croatia sat around -130 (56.52%).
Where will Eurovision be held this year?
Eurovision will be held in Basel, Switzerland.
When is Eurovision this year?
The two semifinals for Eurovision will be held on May 13 and 15, with the final on May 17.
How does judging for Eurovision work?
Judging is split between a jury of music professionals and the public. The latter can submit their vote through a phone call, text message, or through the official contest app.
🎶 Best Eurovision betting sites
Want to bet on Eurovision 2025? Check out the best sports betting apps and best sportsbook promos for the competition:
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