Oscars Best Actor Predictions: Betting Odds & Picks for 2025 Academy Awards
Unlike the races around it, the battle for Best Actor has been relatively tame and straightforward. Adrien Brody of "The Brutalist" has seemingly had a firm grip on the Oscar since his Golden Globe win in January but has felt that grip loosen with Timothée Chalamet spoiling his precursor sweep and winning the SAG award last weekend.
However, with neither Brody nor Chalamet starring in a true Best Picture contender, the iconic Conclave lead Ralph Fiennes cannot be written off completely in the latest Oscars odds.
Below, we make our 2025 Oscars Best Actor predictions for tonight's Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
🎭 Oscars Best Actor odds 2025
Here are the latest Oscars odds via BetMGM to win Best Actor
| Actor | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | -220 | 68.75% | $4.55 |
| Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | +160 | 38.46% | $16 |
| Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
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💰 Oscars Best Actor predictions: The nominees
Adrien Brody
Brody’s portrayal of a Jewish architect escaping a post-war Europe is by far the most decorated role nominated for Best Actor this year. Winning at the CCAs, the BAFTAs, and the Golden Globes, Adrien Brody was priced as heavy as -300 going into the final weeks, but saw his odds falter after Timothée Chalamet’s lone Best Actor win at the SAG awards.
While the SAG is an illustrious award that typically signals strong industry support, I believe this win for Chalamet is more optics than impact.
The Screen Actors Guild is a huge voting body that has typically leaned toward big, populist performances, and the Bob Dylan role was the odds-on favourite to win this vote, explaining why Brody still enjoys a comfortable lead in the odds. The victory speech and win would have no impact on the Oscar vote, which had closed days before the SAG winners were revealed.
"The Brutalist" underperformed at the SAG nominations, proving the large voting body was not impressed by the lengthy, period epic and indicating Brody’s fate at the ceremony. Notably, Brody also won his first Oscar in 2003 without winning the SAG award, proving that this apparent change in momentum is something he can and has already overcome.
Chalamet’s win prevents the sweep that would have ended this race, but it does not move the needle enough in the Oscar vote and Brody still possesses a package that has almost always gone on to secure the Oscar this decade.
On BetMGM, Brody is a market best -220, and in comparison to the rest of the market and Brody’s price days ago – or the hypothetical price if Brody were to sweep and win the SAG award – I believe there is value at -220. Other markets have priced Brody much steeper, some as short as -280, and despite having backed this horse since before the film’s release, I think the value at those lines is nearly exhausted.
Still, Brody gives almost unanimously the best performance of any actor nominated at the Oscars this year. Awarding Brody for this performance would be uncontentious and deserved and I expect the Academy to agree.
Timothée Chalamet
The only man that can seemingly rival Brody’s dominant season, Chalamet is enjoying a second wind following his first SAG award win. Chalamet’s transformation into Bob Dylan, even down to singing and playing guitar, is the kind of commitment that can typically persuade the Actor’s guild.
As high as +185 on Fanduel, Chalamet is given just over a 35% chance of winning his first ever Oscar at age 29. Proving he could sway a voting body to go against the season-dominating Brody forces the market to take Chalamet seriously, but in my opinion the gap between Brody and Chalamet is too large to overcome.
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The SAG win is not inconsequential for Chalamet, but the timing of the vote has not worked in his favour, and his price is not an accurate reflection of the chance he wins this prize with just a SAG award.
Though another powerful performance, and Chalamet's second in a Best Picture contender this season, the Dylan role failed to take off and garner enough support within the industry, with "A Complete Unknown" projected to blank at the Oscars entirely. It seems for now that Chalamet will have to wait his turn for the elusive Oscar, and despite making this a competitive race, no other acting performance seems to have taken off quite like Brody’s.
Ralph Fiennes
Despite Fiennes’ best wishes, he has found himself in another awards race campaign and leads the film that has an underdog shot of becoming this year's Best Picture. With two previous nominations for this award, Fiennes’ body of work, including his performance in "Conclave", is the type the Academy typically would reward with a Best Actor win.
Fiennes delivers a commanding performance in "Conclave", yet finds his odds as high as +2600, implying just a 3% chance of victory. Fiennes played a role with a more measured and cerebral performance compared to the emotional and transformative moments we see from Brody and Chalamet, and it's hard to say it is the best performance among the nominees.
Coupled with Fiennes' comical reluctance in engaging in Oscar campaigns, this is not a race that Fiennes seemingly had much interest in winning and is content to let his work speak for itself. It's hard to see a path now for Fiennes to win, and his lack of campaign has left him heading into the weekend with no precursory awards.
His presence in this race is completely justified, but at +2600, the prices reflect the reality, and Fiennes will be a respected runner-up to either Brody or Chalamet.
Colman Domingo
A respected talent returning to the Oscars in back-to-back years, Domingo entered the season with real hopes of contending for Best Actor after a great performance in "Sing Sing". In November, before "The Brutalist" had even released, I feared that Domingo would suffer from A24’s acquisition of Brody’s film, and unfortunately it looks like that was the case. Brody went on to win award after award, dominating the narrative at the expense of Domingo who was campaigning well at the time.
It no longer seems like A24 has faith in getting an Academy Award out of Domingo this year, and despite the back-to-back nominations, Domingo is priced as long as +8000, implying a 1.23% chance of a win this year, according to our betting calculators.
Sebastian Stan
A veteran actor, this year’s Golden Globe winner is seemingly the least likely nominee to pick up the Oscar. One of the only nominees with a huge acting award this season, Stan picked up the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy earlier this year, but it was for his work in "A Different Man", a completely unrelated role from a separate film.
The award proves his talent and was likely a factor in earning Stan the Oscar nomination, but the Globes win does him no favours in this race and Stan has an uphill battle to climb.
While the performance itself has been praised, the reality is that the Academy has little appetite to reward anything tied to president Donald Trump. Stan’s work gets caught in the crossfire of broader disdain, and that’s left him with no real path to winning this award.
Even at +4500 I am not inclined to make any wagers on Stan.
🍿 Oscars expert picks
- Oscars odds
- Oscars Best Picture predictions
- Oscars Best Director predictions
- Oscars Best Actor predictions
- Oscars Best Actress predictions
- Printable Oscars ballot
- Oscars PR expert picks
👉 My best Best Actor prediction: Adrien Brody
Despite "The Brutalist"’s recent underperformance at Awards shows, Brody has kept on winning, and a Chalamet speech made after Oscar voting had closed is not expected to stop Brody from becoming a two-time Oscar Winner.
The best Best Actor bet is Brody at -220 on BetMGM.
💡 How to bet on the Oscars
Odds for the 2025 Oscars are available at our best sportsbooks. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars, and don't miss our guide for how to bet on the Oscars!.
Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2025 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.
DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others.
Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.
It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!
❓ Oscars FAQs
When are the Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 2, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Where are the Oscars?
The Oscars are held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Who's hosting the Oscars?
Comedian Conan O'Brien is set to host the 2025 Oscars.
How to watch the Oscars
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
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