Oscars Best Actress Predictions: Betting Odds & Picks for 2025 Academy Awards
This was always going to be a chaotic Best Actress race at the 2025 Oscars with five career-defining performances from five vastly different Best Picture contenders.
With no leading lady in then-Best Picture frontrunner "The Brutalist", the category was left wide open to start the season. That uncertainty didn’t last long, and Demi Moore capitalized on her shock Golden Globes win with an emotional speech that quickly became one of the most talked about moments of the season. And that shortened her Oscars odds significantly.
Never shy about delivering chaos, the Globes nearly outdid themselves that same night by awarding Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres the Best Actress in a Drama, another stunning upset that saw the passion behind an international artist beat out veterans like Angelina Jolie.
These three women have yet to appear on the same ballot, and the race is quite not as sown up as the odds may imply heading into tonight and our 2025 Oscars Best Actress predictions. The Academy Awards take play Sunday night at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
🎭 Oscars Best Actress odds 2025
Here are the latest Oscars odds via Caesars to win Best Actress
| Actor | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | -250 | 71.43% | $4 |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +3500 | 2.78% | $350 |
| Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Perez) | +3500 | 2.78% | $350 |
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💰 Oscars Best Actress predictions: The nominees
Demi Moore
Taking a shot on an unconventional script, Moore has finally found an impossible to ignore performance that brings her to the cusp of an Oscar after a near 50-year career.
Moore’s +1300 win at the Golden Globes for "The Substance" was the biggest jolt to the Oscars this season, instantly turning her from a sentimental long shot into the Best Actress frontrunner. It was a great moment that was quickly followed by another win at the CCAs, and then again at the SAG Awards, settling her odds at -250 before the big ceremony.
Moore possesses an impressive haul of awards, but the Academy’s spotty relationship with body-horror remains a major obstacle, and the polarizing film is failing to pick up steam like her competitors in "Anora" and "I’m Still Here". With Mikey Madison picking up the BAFTA and stopping Moore’s sweep, there is evidence to suggest the vet narrative and shock value of the film may not be enough to carry Moore over the line.
Moore would be a compelling bet if there was more value to her underdog narrative, but the continuous televised wins and speeches have forced the market to price her as a much bigger betting favorite than anyone may have anticipated at this stage.
This was a coming-of-age performance and the best of her career, but with the more accurate predictor in BAFTA going to Mikey Madison and the Academy’s reluctance to award horror films, this is simply not a good bet to make at such a steep price.
Mikey Madison
If you read my last couple updates insisting to stick with Madison, you may hope I’ve since learned my lesson, but I haven’t. Moore's big Golden Globes moment shook up the odds forever, but it also incited an overcorrection that gave Madison a ridiculously generous price to package along with a potential Best Picture win.
With "Anora" peaking at exactly the right time, Madison rode that wave straight to a BAFTA win for Best Actress, defeating Moore just days before Oscar voting closed. While Madison would go on to lose the SAG award to Moore later that week, history suggests BAFTA might be the more important bellwether. In the last seven instances where SAG and BAFTA split on Best Actress, the BAFTA winner went on to win the Oscar five times.
It’s not the largest sample size, but it highlights just how valuable BAFTA’s membership overlap with the Academy can be, and why Madison’s lone acting win might matter a lot more than it seems.
Madison is the emotional core of the film expected to receive the most votes for Best Picture, and it’s hard to see why those same voters wouldn’t simply continue down the ballot to also reward the actress who quite literally is "Anora".
Even if "Conclave" or "The Brutalist" were to upset in Best Picture, there are no lead actresses in those movies threatening Madison’s position. Madison comes from the more awarded, more accessible film, and with "Anora" projected to take home the most Oscars on the night, it’s hard to ignore the value sitting on the BAFTA winner at +200 in what is a nailbiter of a race.
Fernanda Torres
Another Golden Globe shock-winner-turned Best Actress contender; Fernanda Torres is a veteran Brazilian actress coming in with the most impassioned fans of all the nominees. Single-handedly carrying her film to a Best Picture nomination, Torres made history becoming the second Brazilian Actress ever nominated, with the first being her very own mother.
Her powerful performance in "I’m Still Here" elicited enough passion among international voters to win Torres the Golden Globe and secure her the eventual Oscar nomination.
While some may point to her lack of nominations in other precursors as a sign of weakness, it's also true that Torres has not lost a head-to-head vote among either of the women ahead of her in the odds. Without a clear history of direct defeats, she remains a mystery for Oscar voters, and the Globes win at least proves there’s an appetite somewhere to reward this performance.
If "I’m Still Here" manages to win Best Foreign Film earlier in the night, it could be a major signal that the Academy embraced the film, and a shock Best Actress win for Torres could suddenly be in the cards. At +1400, Torres stands out as one of the most appealing long shots of the night, representing a candidate who also hasn’t spent the season losing head-to-head against the frontrunners.
It's tough to predict if the Academy support that got "I’m Still Here" into the Best Picture race will be enough to award it a Best Actress win, but even at +1400 it has a shot.
Karla Sofía Gascón
Sofía Gascón has made history as the first trans woman ever nominated for Best Actress, carving out a special moment in Oscar history. She is the titular character of the most nominated film at the Oscars this year, "Emilia Perez", and was pondered as a possible winner as the film gained traction.
That idea was quickly dismissed when polarizing and offensive tweets made by the Spanish star went viral.
What should have been a triumphant moment for many parties has been mired with controversy and PR disaster, the likes of which Sofía Gascón and "Emilia Perez" never recovered from. With her odds hovering around the 3% implied probability mark, according to our betting calculators, Sofía Gascón’s historic nomination has ultimately led nowhere, and the timing of the unearthed tweets could not have been worse for "Emilia Perez".
Cynthia Erivo
Striving for the legendary Oscar that would take her among only 18 performers in history with EGOT status, Broadway titan Erivo is looking to make history. Her performance in Wicked led the film to record-breaking grosses, but with the film failing to win any major awards so far this season, Erivo is left with the longest odds of all the nominees.
Performing commercially is not enough to move the needle in a vote like this, and it looks like the Academy has already moved on from "Wicked" this year and may opt to reward the incoming sequel next year instead.
If Erivo’s performance continues to soar in "Wicked: For Good", she may be able to bundle the narrative of her EGOT chase into a Best Actress win, but this year she ends her campaign as the least likely to pick up the award on Sunday.
🍿 Oscars expert picks
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👉 My best Best Actress prediction: Mikey Madison
I still don’t understand how we’ve ended up in a spot where "Anora" is a large favourite to win Best Picture, yet the actress literally playing "Anora" isn’t expected to win Best Actress. This is a hill that I may die on, but if it is going to be "Anora"’s night at the Oscars, then Madison is "Anora".
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💡 How to bet on the Oscars
Odds for the 2025 Oscars are available at our best sportsbooks. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars, and don't miss our guide for how to bet on the Oscars!.
Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2025 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.
DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others.
Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.
It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!
❓ Oscars FAQs
When are the Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 2, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Where are the Oscars?
The Oscars are held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Who's hosting the Oscars?
Comedian Conan O'Brien is set to host the 2025 Oscars.
How to watch the Oscars
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
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