Oscars Best Picture Predictions: Betting Odds & Picks for 2025 Academy Awards

After months of campaigns, speeches, scandals, and votes, we arrive at the Dolby Theatre once again to celebrate the best in cinema tonight and wrap up our Oscars Best Picture predictions. The 97th Academy Awards take place Sunday and the votes of the 10,000-plus Academy members will bring a conclusion to a thrilling race.  

While "Anora"’s momentum shows no signs of slowing, "The Brutalist" is struggling to secure awards it was once considered to have locked down, and this show in weakness questions whether this film is even amongst the top contenders for this prize by the Oscars odds.

In contrast, "Conclave" is quietly picking up awards and giving important televised speeches, suggesting its late surge may be more than just a footnote in this race.

🎬 Oscars Best Picture odds 2025

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💰 Oscars Best Picture predictions: The nominees

Anora 

Unexpectedly - or expectedly depending on who you ask - Sean Baker’s $6 million dramedy "Anora" is now as firm as -330 to win Best Picture.  

Nearly 100 days ago, I wrote my first byline on this year’s Oscar race and the state of the coveted Best Picture award. The Brutalist had just made its very noisy debut and had become the odds-on favourite. We took an underdog chance on "Anora", charming as she is, to entice the Academy into what would be a huge independent film triumph.

"Anora" went on to lose every single nomination it had at the Golden Globes… 

For a time, it seemed that this was inevitably "The Brutalist"’s year, and its odds swelled into a huge - 300 favourite. The trend seemed to continue at "Anora"’s next televised test, losing multiple nominations at the Critics Choice Awards early in the night.

But then came the penultimate award for Best Picture, and somehow "Anora" went against the grain to win the biggest prize at the CCAs. And then again at the PGAs. And then again at the DGAs. And the WGAs. 

This winning combination from some of the Academy’s strongest branches has gone on to win the Oscar 10 times in the last 12 years and indicates perhaps "Anora" was the actual frontrunner all along.  

With the market best price from bet365 at -200, Anora goes beyond even -300 (75% implied win probability, according to our odds converter) on some of our best sports betting sites and is enough of a favourite that any other outcome at this point would be considered a surprise. Its big week at the guilds is the culprit for the huge equity it now enjoys, but this race is not over yet and losses at BAFTA and the SAG awards prevented an industry sweep that could have ended the race. 

The award season has played out much like the film itself, and the emotional rollercoaster that its viewers and bettors have been on seems to have brought us right back to where it all began. With "Anora".

Conclave 

For a film about certainty and doubt in democracy, "Conclave" has played its part well and its immense support has revealed itself late to secure a coveted spot on the ballot (see our printable Oscars ballot here) just behind "Anora".  

Winning the biggest prize at BAFTA and the SAG awards earlier this month, both of which share  members with the Academy, "Conclave" is now a film that demands to be taken seriously in a race for Best Picture. A +800 long shot earlier this month, its most recent win has taken it to +250 on bet365, indicating a 28% chance of becoming the Oscar winner.  

Though largely overshadowed by the flashier frontrunners, "Conclave" was a safe and well-executed film that the Academy was always sure to enjoy but not expected to award. The industry giving it two of the biggest prizes on the eve of the Oscars reveal an unexpected inclination toward the more formulaic movie, and with its award haul, I see this as a film that can win at least 1/3 times. 

Going against the film is the fact it is not competitive in any acting races unlike other contenders, but it's hard to be certain in "Anora" with its interesting combination of precursor wins. For advice we can go to the film itself: “If there was only certainty, and if there was no doubt, there  would be no mystery, and therefore no need for faith.” 

At +250, I can show some faith in "Conclave" to deliver the Best Picture.  

The Brutalist 

"The Brutalist"’s glowing reception following its festival debut and Silver Lion win was respected with a hefty +175 price before it was even released to the masses.

The film arrived with a seemingly unstoppable win package of technical achievements like cinematography, directing, and score, but the wave of hype that "The Brutalist" rode out of the Venice film festival did not seem to make it to America. The film has failed to translate its technical success into nominations and wins, garnering complaints from the length of the film to the difficult subject matter in the latter half. 

Following another shut out at the SAG awards, the markets have priced "The Brutalist" out of the top two and the film does not have the awards haul it was expected to hold going into the final week of the race.

At this point, the film has suffered too many losses from too many different industry bodies to be considered competitive, and even at +650, a price that seemed impossible weeks ago, there is not enough evidence of Academy support to make a bet for Best Picture.

Emilia Perez 

Making history with 13 nominations at this year’s awards, "Emilia Perez" is the most nominated movie at the Oscars this year yet is not even in the conversation for Best Picture. Though it was always against the odds for a foreign language musical to win Best Picture, the main culprits for this film’s apparent Academy rejection are controversial and damning statements made by its very own director and lead actress.  

The scandal on the eve of voting has left a bad taste in the mouth for anything "Emilia Perez" related. This film’s two most important crew members may have effectively eliminated it from contention for most of its 13 nominations.

A Complete Unknown 

A charming biopic on a music legend, "A Complete Unknown" takes viewers back to the 60s and the start of Bob Dylan’s brilliant career. Sprinkled with folk music hits and cameos, it is a great film with an award-winning performance from Timothée Chalamet, but the nostalgia fails to leave a huge impact.

This film doesn’t have a path to contend with its competition beyond Timmy’s sole acting win. 

Wicked 

The Broadway-hit turned Blockbuster-mega-hit made its very impressive debut on the big screen, breaking records in the process. A cultural phenomenon for sure, "Wicked" is a Part 1 that seems to be performing more as a fan-favourite than an awards contender.  

Its possible the Academy will be willing to take it more seriously on the sequel next year.

Dune: Part 2 

Quebec’s Denis Villeneuve delivered the most commercially successful film nominated, but its box office performance has not moved the needle for Best Picture, and Villeneuve's Best Director snub indicates the  Academy has already turned the page on the award season’s earliest release. Even ‘Lisan al Gaib’ has moved on to playing folk music in New York, choosing to focus on his other film campaign instead.

Annoyingly, it doesn’t seem like the Academy is willing to award Villeneuve’s vision this year.

The Substance 

Coralie Fargeat’s unique vision in "The Substance" has earned her several glass-ceiling shattering nominations, including this year’s sole female Best Director nomination. With Demi Moore looking to take Best Actress, it is tempting to pair that with a Best Picture bet, but ultimately the Academy’s aversion to horror and graphic content gives The Substance just one too many uphill battles to climb. 

Nickel Boys & I’m Still Here 

Two stories diving into the gritty realities of the world, both films have defied expectation and captivated audiences to make it onto this distinguished list. Realistically, the “win” for these films is largely the nomination and recognition of the work, and a nomination and invitation are as good as it will get.

Maybe throw some change on "I’m Still Here", you never know what the next "Parasite" could be.

🍿 Oscars expert picks

• Oscars odds
• Oscars Best Picture predictions
• Oscars Best Director predictions
• Oscars Best Actor predictions
• Oscars Best Actress predictions
• Printable Oscars ballot
• Oscars PR expert picks

👉 My best Best Picture prediction: Anora

The critics have spoken, the producers and directors have spoken, the guilds have  spoken, and their admiration for Anora is resoundingly loud.

Having taken "Anora"’s underdog narrative at an underdog price after the last update, you might not be tempted in revisiting this well and could opt for "Conclave" instead, but the pick is still "Anora" to complete its Cinderella story and win this year's Oscar for Best Picture.

💡 How to bet on the Oscars

Odds for the 2025 Oscars are available at our best sportsbooks. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars, and don't miss our guide for how to bet on the Oscars!.

Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2025 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.

DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others. 

Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.

It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!

❓ Oscars FAQs

When are the Oscars?

The 2025 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 2, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.

Where are the Oscars?

The Oscars are held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Who's hosting the Oscars?

Comedian Conan O'Brien is set to host the 2025 Oscars.

How to watch the Oscars

The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.

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