Liverpool vs. PSG Prediction Today: Champions League Round of 16 Expert Pick & Odds

Liverpool host PSG today in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 clash with a one-goal advantage as we offer our expert pick for this afternoon's contest.

Gary Pearson

Last updated: March 11, 2025 10:24 AM EDT • 4 min read

Liverpool vs. PSG Prediction Today: Champions League Round of 16 Expert Pick & Odds — Pictured: Ousmane Dembele (PSG) during the Ligue 1 McDonald's match between Rennes and Paris Saint-Germain. Photo by Anthony Bibard / Icon Sport via Sipa USA.

Liverpool escaped Paris last week like a sneaky, unassuming thief leaving the scene of a crime undetected, as they robbed Paris Saint-Germain of a 1-0 victory in the first leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tilt. The hosts poured on the pressure for most of the match but ultimately came up short.

Our Liverpool vs. PSG prediction and expert pick expect the Reds to eke out another victory and progress into the UCL quarterfinals. Kickoff from Anfield in Liverpool, England, is slated for 4 p.m. ET (Paramount+).

Our best sports betting sites list the hosts as +130 favorites to win outright. Liverpool have the second-shortest Champions League odds, can they keep their dream of an eighth big-earred trophy alive?

🔮 Liverpool vs. PSG predictions

Champions League picks are based on the odds at our best soccer betting sites. Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

🚨Liverpool vs PSG moneyline pick: Liverpool ML (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
🚨Liverpool vs. PSG best pick: Halftime tie (+130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚽️ Who will win Liverpool vs. PSG?

🎯 Liverpool ML ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 43.48%

Liverpool's victory in Paris last week was about as ugly as a psychopath's soul, but they won't care about the manner of victory, just that they got it.

The Reds had two shots to PSG's 27. That -25 shot differential is the joint-worst for a winning team in a knockout match since 2003-04.

I cannot overstate the importance of returning to Anfield with the lead. The Reds ended PSG's 22-game unbeaten streak and now know they can prevail despite being thoroughly outplayed. I don't expect the same to happen at Anfield, where Liverpool have lost once in 18 Premier League and Champions League matches this season.

In four previous home Champions League contests, they outscored opponents 10-1, including a 2-0 stress-free triumph over Real Madrid. Their lonesome defeat at Anfield came almost six months ago in the Premier League.

In addition, Liverpool have never been knocked out of a European competition when returning to Anfield with a lead after the first leg. I'm banking on Liverpool scoring on the break in the latter stages of the contest to break PSG's back and will.

There is also a solid chance this tilt ends in a 1-1 draw, but I'm predicting a 2-1 Liverpool victory. DraftKings offers the most competitive price of our best sportsbooks, where a winning $10 bet will profit $13.

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🏅 Best Liverpool vs. PSG pick

🟰 Halftime tie ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied win probability: 43.48%

The start of the match won't be cagey, not in the least. Unlike the contest in Paris, Liverpool should dictate play from the opening kick-off. I expect PSG to batten down the hatches, bending but not breaking.

I expect either a 0-0 or 1-1 halftime score, with PSG working into the game and pushing the tempo after a torrid opening 20 minutes from the hosts.

The score was tied at nil entering halftime during the first leg in Paris. BetMGM has the best odds for this pick, which will garner a $13 profit if the match is all square entering the interval.

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📊 Liverpool vs. PSG odds

See the latest Champions League odds on all of today's other matchups.

Liverpool (+130) are slight favorites over Paris Saint-Germain (+185) as of Tuesday late morning. The Reds hold a 1-0 advantage heading back to Anfield, a ground they haven't been beaten on since Sept. 14 (1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest). While the Parisians thoroughly outplayed Liverpool in the first leg, they have a tall mountain to climb today.

❓ When is Liverpool vs. PSG?

When: Tuesday, March 11
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: Anfield (Liverpool, England)
How to watch: Paramount+, DAZN
Weather: 41 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, 9 to 16 mph winds
Favorite: Liverpool (+130 via DraftKings)

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.