PSG vs. Liverpool Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds: Champions League Round of 16 First Leg

PSG and Liverpool will clash on Wednesday at Parc des Princes in a mouthwatering Round of 16 first leg, and we expect the Premier League runaways to leave Paris with a share of the spoils.

Gary Pearson

Last updated: March 5, 2025 7:01 AM EST • 4 min read

Our PSG vs. Liverpool prediction. — Liverpool's Mohamed Salah during a training session. Photo by Peter Byrne via Imagn Images

Liverpool won seven of eight matches in the group phase, with their only loss coming in a meaningless Matchday 8 contest. Their reward? A Round of 16 tie against fellow Champions League odds contenders PSG.

While Liverpool sauntered through opening stage, PSG dragged its feet, losing three matches and finishing 15th. That inconsistent patch has served as a wake-up call for the Parisians, who've won 19 of the last 20 matches in all competitions.

Wednesday's mouthwatering tilt between the European juggernauts takes place at Parc des Princes in Paris, with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET (DAZN, Paramount+). Our PSG vs. Liverpool prediction expects the road underdogs will return to England with a share of the spoils.

PSG vs. Liverpool predictions

Champions League picks are based on the odds at our best soccer betting sites. Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

🚨PSG vs. Liverpool moneyline pick: Draw (+260 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🚨PSG vs. Liverpool best pick: Mo Salah anytime goal (+175 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Who will win PSG vs. Liverpool?

🎯 ML tie ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +260 via FanDuel | Implied win probability: 27.78%

Liverpool were the Champions League favorites throughout the eight matches in the initial stage. Real Madrid's dominant win over Manchester City and Liverpool's pairing against PSG changed the complexion, dropping the Reds to third favorite.

But make no mistake; the Reds are the competition's favorites if you consider the entire season. Their consistently elite level and the fact they're 13 points up on second-place Arsenal in the Premier League conveys all you need to know.

And remember, Liverpool face stiffer competition than PSG every week, with the runaway Ligue 1 leaders often pitted against far inferior competition who barely cause Luis Enrique's side to break a sweat.

The question is whether PSG can raise their level to match a Liverpool side that has been chugging along since the start of the season.

PSG is one of Europe's most exciting and formidable teams when they're on. Their core is young, quick, and skilled. And they enter Wednesday's match at home on the back of 10 straight wins in all competitions. Many expect a high-scoring, free-flowing contest, but I don't.

Liverpool are too seasoned and experienced to play into PSG's strengths in a hostile environment. I expect a dogged defensive display from the visitors, dropping deep and soaking up the pressure while looking to expose the home side on the counter. There should be nothing to choose between these teams in Paris, with Liverpool escaping with a 1-1 tie. A winning $10 bet will profit $26.

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Best PSG vs. Liverpool pick

⚽ Mo Salah anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +175 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 36.36%

Salah has 25 goals in 28 Premier League games, five ahead of second-place Erling Haaland. While he only has three goals in seven Champions League matches, he scored in both previous contests against Lille and Girona. I also like the matchup and potential game script, as Salah is excellent on the counter.

And he takes Liverpool's penalties, which always increases the likelihood of bagging one. bet365 and FanDuel offer the best odds of our best sportsbooks, with DraftKings offering the worst (+100). That's a difference in profit of $7.50 on a winning $10 bet.

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PSG vs. Liverpool odds

See the latest Champions League odds on all of today's other matchups.

When is PSG vs. Liverpool?

When: Wednesday, March 5
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Parc des Princes (Paris)
How to watch: DAZN, Paramount+
Weather: 50 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 4 mph to 6 mph winds
Favorite: PSG (+150 via DraftKings)

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.