Pereira vs. Ankalaev Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 313
The UFC takes T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday, with Alex Pereira defending his light heavyweight crown against Magomed Ankalaev in the main event of UFC 313.
The reigning king enters his fourth title defense with as many consecutive knockouts to his name and 10 in 12 wins as a pro. Pereira’s most recent outing came in October at UFC 307, when he dispatched challenger Khalil Rountree Jr. by fourth-round TKO.
Ankalaev hasn’t tasted defeat since dropping his UFC debut to Paul Craig in 2018, going 11-0-1 with one no-contest. The Dagestan native most recently earned a second shot at UFC gold with a decision over Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 308 this past October, but our Pereira vs. Ankalaev prediction doesn't fancy him to continue his winning streak tonight.
Pereira vs. Ankalaev prediction & best bet for UFC 313
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Pereira to win (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Ankalaev ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Pereira by KO/TKO (+150 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Pereira vs. Ankalaev fight analysis
Many anointed Ankalaev a champion in waiting early in his UFC stint, but he’ll have to wait a little longer.
Despite being a hard-hitting striker with solid wrestling, the challenger routinely fails to push his advantages against his man. Furthermore, Jan Blachowicz found great success with low kicks in his 2022 dance with Ankalaev, and I expect Pereira to replicate that formula come tonight. A career kickboxer with a four-inch edge in reach, the champion outlands Ankalaev with 5.46 significant strikes per minute to 3.64, and should the challenger prove reluctant to press the action yet again, Pereira will have his way on the feet.
Yes, Ankalaev may resort to his wrestling, but he’ll have to earn Pereira’s respect with his mitts first, and that’s a tall order. In short, he may have to shuck off a few takedown attempts, but look for Pereira to spend the opening stanza making his reads and scoring with low kicks before opening up with combos and outdueling Ankalaev en route to a fourth successful title defense.
Pereira entered fight week a slight favorite with all our best sports betting sites, and his status remains intact mere hours before the cage door shuts. While BetMGM and DraftKings each offer solid value on the light heavyweight kingpin at -120 as of early Saturday morning, it’s FanDuel leading the pack on a sixth straight win for the champ at -115.
Prediction: Pereira to win (-115 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 53.5%
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Pereira vs. Ankalaev best bet
Based on Pereira’s kickboxing pedigree, edge in striking output, knockout-riddled resume, and Ankalaev’s yet-to-be-tested chin, we’re going with a stoppage victory for the champ with this week’s best bet.
Ankalaev’s UFC run has lacked an opposing striker of Pereira’s caliber, and as a result, we have yet to see how he handles a clean haymaker to the kisser. Riding 10 career knockouts and a five-fight win streak including four violent stoppages, Pereira is just the man to find out. Should he hobble Ankalaev with low kicks as Blachowicz did, Pereira will find an opening for his patented left hook before long, and I see him landing it to leave Ankalaev counting the lights.
While FanDuel earned the nod for our moneyline bet, the competition is slightly stiffer for this week’s best bet. Indeed, FanDuel is deadlocked with other top sportsbooks in BetMGM and DraftKings, all offering a fifth straight Pereira KO/TKO at +150.
Best bet: Pereira by KO/TKO (+150 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 40.0%
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Pereira vs. Ankalaev odds
Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday.
| Pereira | Method of victory | Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| -115 | Win outright | -105 |
| +150 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +350 |
| +650 | Win by unanimous decision | +300 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
FanDuel is this week’s sportsbook of choice, and whether you’re siding with the champion or challenger, you’ll find solid value on all available lines. Pereira has gone the distance just twice in a dozen career wins, hence the disparity between a victory on points and an 11th KO/TKO for the champ. For Ankalaev, you’ll find comparable value between an upset by KO/TKO and decision, as the challenger has earned five UFC victories via strikes and six on points.
Pereira vs. Ankalaev tale of the tape
| Pereira | Ankalaev | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 32 |
| 6’4” | Height | 6’3” |
| 205 lbs. | Weight | 205 lbs. |
| 79” | Reach | 75” |
| 12-2 | Record | 20-1-1 (1 NC) |
Pereira vs. Ankalaev fight info: UFC 313
- When: Saturday, March 8 at 10:00 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- How to watch: ESPN+, PPV
- Favorite: Pereira (-115 via FanDuel)
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