UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 313 - Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
The No. 3 pound-for-pound fighter on the planet takes center stage at UFC 313. Alex Pereira looks to defend his light heavyweight belt against Magomed Ankalaev, as the champ seeks to make it four consecutive title defenses.
Our UFC 313 predictions break down the night's best tilts from a betting perspective. Our UFC 313 odds and betting lines highlight live odds for all 12 fights during the UFC's latest pay-per-view event. Our best sports betting sites list Pereira (-115) as the slight favorite over Ankalaev (+100).
The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN+ pay-per-view) from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
🔮 UFC 313 best bets
Here are my best UFC 313 predictions and picks for tonight's PPV card with my UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ v. Magomed Ankalaev (+150 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Gaethje ML vs. Rafael Fiziev (+138 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jalin Turner ML vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision vs. Amanda Lemos (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧐 UFC 313 expert picks
🏆 Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Magomed Ankalaev ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +150 via FanDuel ($10 to win $15)
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Fans at T-Mobile Arena are going to find out when the two best fighters in the light heavyweight division duel tonight. Pereira and Ankalaev have produced combined professional records of 32-3-1, resumes that include wins over some of the sport's most significant names.
The best part about each fighter's CV is they've gone about picking up their wins in completely different ways. The stylistic differences between the two couldn't be more pronounced. That results in the path to victory being clear for both sides.
Pereira will want to stay on his feet, countering the challenger's takedowns with a series of his staple leg kicks. If he stays off the mat, Pereira will look to use his knockout power to carry him to victory. Meanwhile, Ankalaev will seek to go to ground early and often where he can control the champ.
In the end, Pereira's vicious leg kicks limit the mobility of his opponents, and his takedown defense has been significantly improving since making the jump from kickboxing to the UFC. Currently, 11 of Poatan's 14 professional fights have ended inside the distance with him knocking out an opponent.
We'll gamble on this fight ending similarly at +150 odds.
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📊 Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev live odds
The champ is receiving 73% of bets and 71% of the handle in the main event, according to BetMGM. However, sharp money is on Ankalaev due to his tricky style proving difficult to combat, resulting in his odds shortening during the buildup to the bout.
🥊 Justin Gaethje moneyline vs. Rafael Fiziev ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +138 via FanDuel ($10 to win $13.80)
With all due respect to Rafael Fiziev, this betting line makes no sense.
Sure, Gaethje has recorded three losses in his last six fights, but those all came in title clashes against Khabib Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira, and Max Holloway (BMF). Further, Fiziev is entering the Octagon for the first time in over 530 days. He's also doing it on short notice against an opponent who has already beaten him.
Both fighters are brutal strikers bound to put on a show. However, I can't ignore the advantage the in-form Gaethje has over his opponent. The 36-year-old won his first fight against Fiziev at UFC 286 by majority decision, so I won't get greedy and try to predict a method of victory.
Instead, I'll take the plus-money outright odds on Gaethje our best sports betting apps are offering while recommending that play with four stars of confidence.
📊 Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev live odds
Gaethje is a public darling, and we don't just mean because of his fighting style. Currently, 75% of the bets at BetMGM in the hours before UFC 313 are on the underdog. However, 61% of the handle leans Fiziev, meaning the sharps are all over "Ataman."
🥊 Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via DraftKings ($10 to win $11)
Similar to Gaethje-Fiziev, I believe the oddsmakers are favoring the wrong fighter in this bout due to recent form. The money (52%) and tickets (59%) at BetMGM both back the American, who opened as a favorite, which makes this line even more puzzling.
Turner has lost in three of his last four outings, but he's fallen to three excellent fighters in Renato Moicano, Dan Hooker, and Mateusz Gamrot. Meanwhile, Bahamondes has won his last two bouts against lesser competition. Now Turner is a significant step up in class for the Chilean.
The latter does possess the slim advantage in significant strikes per minute (7.17 to 5.60). But "The Tarantula" makes up for that gap with his superior striking accuracy and a slightly better ground game.
There's not much separating these two up-and-coming kickboxers. However, Turner boasts the experience and patience advantages, which can prove crucial in fights that are too close to call. It's difficult to pass up the opportunity to bet on him at +110 for those reasons.
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📊 Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes live odds
The bets and money favor Turner slightly, especially as far as the latter goes. Bahamondes moved from a plus-money underdog to the favorite in the buildup to the fight, but it wouldn't be surprising if sharp action quietly shifts the odds.
🥊 Iasmin Lucindo vs. Amanda Lemos ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +125 via BetMGM ($10 to win $12.50)
You didn't really think I was going to pick three underdogs, did you? Lemos is a household name in the UFC, but she hasn't displayed her signature knockout power since her last finish in Novemer 2022. Meanwhile, Lucindo has won 80% of her fights since joining the UFC, including her last four.
Similar to the main event, this scrap features contrasting styles. Lemos is a stereotypical southpaw, while Lucindo is an orthodox grappler. The former will look to keep the fight upright while the latter will seek to hit the mats at any opportunity. So who holds the upper hand?
Well, Lemos' last fight gives us our answer. The elder Brazilian struggles with wrestlers, as she showed in her most recent display, a defeat against Virna Jandiroba. While Lucindo isn't as good of a grappler as Jandiroba, she possesses all the discipline required to fight defensively against Lemos' powerful punches.
I'm going to side with the public and pick the favorite to get the job done. Five of Lucindo's last six fights have gone the distance, so we feel confident taking the No. 7 women's strawweight contender.
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📊 Iasmin Lucindo vs. Amanda Lemos live odds
Lucindo opened as the favorite before the odds flipped in the days prior to UFC 313. However, BetMGM is reporting a majority of the bets are on the underdog, with the handle at 76% and the tickets at 62%.
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